Week 1 NFL Upset Alert: Three Underdog Teams Primed to Shock the League

The NFL season is a rollercoaster of anticipation, and Week 1 is where the ride begins. Forget what you think you know; early-season jitters, revamped rosters, and unexpected performances often lead to stunning upsets. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, were stunned by the Detroit Lions in the opening game, a sign that anything can happen. As we gear up for the 2025 season, here are three underdog teams poised to deliver a Week 1 shock to the system, sending ripples through the league and potentially making a splash in the NFL futures market.

1. Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots: A New Era Dawns in Foxborough?

The Setup: The New England Patriots, with rookie quarterback Drake Maye under center, are favored by 3.5 points at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. Hype is building around Maye, but Week 1 on September 7th will be his first real test against an NFL defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders, led by veteran Geno Smith and with Pete Carroll providing sideline expertise, are looking to establish a new identity.
Why the Raiders Could Upset: While Maye possesses undeniable potential, expecting immediate brilliance against a seasoned defensive mind like Raiders’ defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is optimistic. The Patriots’ offensive line, despite improvements, still needs to prove its mettle against Maxx Crosby, one of the league’s premier pass rushers. On the other side of the ball, Geno Smith, with the addition of rookie running back Ashton Gentry, could find success against a Patriots defense undergoing its own transition.
- Key Stat: Favorites of 7+ points have gone 16-25 during Week 1 against the spread, according to Bet Labs. This historical trend suggests that even seemingly comfortable favorites are vulnerable early in the season.
The X-Factor: Pete Carroll’s experience. While he’s new to the Raiders, his Super Bowl-winning pedigree and ability to motivate a team cannot be discounted. He knows how to prepare a team for Week 1, and that could be the difference.

2. Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints: Desert Heat in the Big Easy

The Setup: The Arizona Cardinals are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are entering a rebuilding phase after Derek Carr’s unexpected retirement, with rookie Tyler Shough likely to start at quarterback.
Why the Cardinals Could Upset: The Saints’ offense is in disarray. With a rookie quarterback under center and potentially missing key pieces like Chris Olave (trade rumors swirling), scoring points will be a challenge. History is also not on their side, as teams with rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1 have struggled mightily, going 1-9 straight up and 1-8-1 against the spread since 2020. The Cardinals, with Kyler Murray looking to take the next step and a solid defense, are well-positioned to capitalize.
- Key Stat: The Saints averaged just 4.0 yards per play in games without Derek Carr last season, highlighting their offensive struggles without their starting quarterback.
The X-Factor: Kyler Murray’s consistency. If Murray can avoid early-season mistakes and effectively utilize his offensive weapons, the Cardinals should be able to control the game and secure a victory.

3. Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts: A Clash of Styles in Indy

The Setup: The Indianapolis Colts are slight 1.5-point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins. This game presents a fascinating contrast in styles, with the Dolphins’ explosive offense facing off against a Colts team looking to establish a strong defensive identity.
Why the Dolphins Could Upset: Despite the Colts being favored, the Dolphins possess the offensive firepower to overwhelm most defenses. Tua Tagovailoa, when healthy, is a highly efficient quarterback, and the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is a nightmare for opposing secondaries. The Colts’ defense, while promising, is still relatively young and could struggle to contain the Dolphins’ speed.
- Key Stat: The Dolphins’ explosive offense, when firing on all cylinders, can score points in bunches, putting immense pressure on opposing offenses to keep pace.
The X-Factor: Tua Tagovailoa’s health. If Tua can remain healthy and protected behind a rebuilt offensive line, the Dolphins’ offense has the potential to be unstoppable. A healthy Tua changes the entire dynamic of this game.

Conclusion: Embrace the Chaos

Week 1 in the NFL is synonymous with unpredictability. While favorites are often favored for a reason, underdogs with the right combination of talent, coaching, and circumstance can rise to the occasion and deliver stunning upsets. Keep an eye on the Raiders, Cardinals, and Dolphins – they might just be the teams to shock the league in Week 1 and set the tone for an exciting 2025 season.