Upset Alert? Analyzing Potential Cinderella Stories for Super Bowl 2026

Upset Alert? Analyzing Potential Cinderella Stories for Super Bowl 2026

The NFL is a league of dynasties, but also a league where anything can happen. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles, who after a Super Bowl LIX victory are now favored to repeat in 2026. But what about those teams lurking in the shadows, the ones with the potential to shock the world and make an improbable run to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California? This year, the Los Angeles Chargers are dark horse contenders at +3200 odds. Under Jim Harbaugh’s leadership, they made the playoffs in 2024 but fell to the Texans. With Justin Herbert at the helm and promising rookies like Ladd McConkey, the team aims to strengthen both offense and defense for a deeper playoff run in 2025. Let’s dive into some potential Cinderella stories for the 2025-2026 season.

The Usual Suspects… or Are They?

Before we get to the true underdogs, let’s acknowledge some teams that are consistently in the conversation. The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, have been a dominant force, appearing in the AFC Championship game every year Mahomes has been the starter. Despite losing Super Bowl LIX, they remain top contenders. The Buffalo Bills, with Josh Allen at quarterback, are always a threat, though they struggle to overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson and bolstered by the addition of Derrick Henry, are also expected to be strong contenders.

However, these teams aren’t exactly “Cinderella” material. They’re expected to be good. The real intrigue lies in identifying teams that could rise from mediocrity to Super Bowl contention.

The Prime Candidates for a Shocking Run

Several teams fit the bill as potential Cinderella stories for Super Bowl 2026:

  • Cincinnati Bengals: After a Super Bowl appearance a few years ago, the Bengals had a “down” year, but a strong finish to the 2025 season suggests they are ready to bounce back. With Joe Burrow healthy and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as receiving threats, the Bengals’ offense can be explosive. The emergence of Chase Brown at running back adds another dimension. If their defense improves, they could be a force in the AFC.

  • Los Angeles Chargers: With Jim Harbaugh now at the helm, the Chargers are an intriguing pick. Harbaugh has a track record of turning programs around, and with a talented quarterback in Justin Herbert, the Chargers could surprise many. Their success hinges on improving their defense and establishing a strong running game.

  • Green Bay Packers: Led by Jordan Love, the Packers are an emerging team with a young roster poised for success. An improved run defense and stability on the offensive line provide a solid foundation. The Packers’ chances depend on Love continuing to develop and the young receivers stepping up.

  • Washington Commanders: The Commanders are an intriguing team with a new head coach in George Schottenheimer and a potentially explosive offense led by quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders have oodles of cap room last offseason and used it to add veteran names up and down the roster, totally rebuilding a terrible offensive line and bumping the defense from awful to passable. If Daniels lives up to the hype and the defense improves, the Commanders could make a surprising run.

Factors That Could Fuel an Upset

Several factors could contribute to a team’s unexpected Super Bowl run:

  • Coaching Changes: New coaching staffs can bring fresh perspectives and strategies, leading to significant improvements. Ben Johnson taking over the Chicago Bears is one example. Liam Coen taking over the Jacksonville Jaguars is another.

  • Rookie Impact: A strong rookie class can inject talent and energy into a team. Several players from the 2025 draft class are expected to step into starting roles right away.

  • Key Acquisitions: Offseason trades and free agent signings can reshape team dynamics. The Eagles signing Saquon Barkley is a prime example.

  • Improved Quarterback Play: Quarterback play is paramount in the NFL. If a young quarterback like Jordan Love or Jayden Daniels takes a leap forward, it can transform a team’s fortunes.

  • Luck: Injuries and unexpected bounces can play a significant role in a team’s success. Staying healthy is crucial for any Super Bowl contender.

Teams to Keep an Eye On

Beyond the teams already mentioned, here are a few other potential dark horses:

  • Houston Texans: With a young, talented quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a defense that finished third in EPA per play in non-garbage time during the regular season, the Texans are a team on the rise.

  • Detroit Lions: Despite a challenging 2024-25 season marred by injuries, Detroit’s potential remains high. With key players like Aidan Hutchinson returning and a favorable NFC North outlook, the Lions are attracting significant betting interest.

  • Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons feature one of the most exciting young nuclei in football. Bijan Robinson is worth the hype, Drake London is a top wide receiver, and Michael Penix Jr. showed signs of excellence in limited action in 2024.

It’s All to Play For

Predicting the Super Bowl champion is a fool’s errand, but that’s part of what makes the NFL so exciting. While the usual suspects are always in the mix, there’s always the potential for a Cinderella story. Keep an eye on the Bengals, Chargers, Packers, and Commanders – they might just surprise you. As the 2025 season approaches, anything is possible, and that’s what makes football the greatest sport on Earth.