Underdog Alert: Ranking the Most Likely Wild Card Upsets in the 2025 NFL Playoffs
The NFL playoffs are a stage where legends are made, and where the unexpected often becomes reality. As we gear up for the 2025 Wild Card weekend, the air is thick with anticipation. History tells us that at least one underdog will rise to the occasion and defy the odds. In fact, Wild Card underdogs have a 24-12 record against the spread over the past seven postseasons. Which teams are most poised to pull off a stunning upset this year? Let’s dive into a data-driven ranking of the most likely Wild Card upsets in the 2025 NFL Playoffs.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Facing a daunting 9.5-point spread, the Pittsburgh Steelers (+403) enter their matchup against the Baltimore Ravens as significant underdogs. While the Steelers managed to split the series with the Ravens during the regular season, their current form is concerning. Russell Wilson and the offense have struggled mightily, failing to surpass 20 points in their last four games. However, never count out a Mike Tomlin coached team. Tomlin is the best coach at covering when catching points, and he’s also a 72% ATS winner as a division dog since 2007, including a 13-3-2 ATS record as an underdog against the Ravens. For the Steelers to have any chance, they’ll need a vintage performance from their defense and a spark from either Wilson or Justin Fields at quarterback.
5. Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Houston Texans, despite holding home-field advantage, are underdogs against Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Texans’ offense has struggled since losing Tank Dell, and injuries along the offensive line further complicate matters. C.J. Stroud will need to be at his absolute best to overcome a tough Chargers defense led by Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. For the Chargers, Justin Herbert needs to continue his efficient passing game, bolstered by the return of JK Dobbins. While the Chargers are favored, the playoffs are never a sure thing, especially against a young, hungry team like the Texans.
4. Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
The Denver Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a dominant defense, face a tough road test against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are favored by 8.5 points, but Denver’s defense, which ranks among the league’s best, could pose problems for Allen. The Broncos have the league’s best defense by EPA and are fourth best by DVOA. Nix will need to avoid costly mistakes and manage the game effectively to give the Broncos a chance. While the Bills are a strong team, their past playoff stumbles and the Broncos’ defensive prowess make this an intriguing upset possibility.
3. Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Green Bay Packers, led by Jordan Love, travel to Philadelphia to take on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The Eagles are favored, but their recent struggles and the Packers’ potential make this a prime upset candidate. The Packers arguably outplayed Philly back in Week 1. If Jordan Love can get through the game healthy, maybe the Packers can pull off the upset this time. For the Packers to win, they’ll need to establish their running game with Josh Jacobs and protect Love from the Eagles’ pass rush.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Los Angeles Rams, under the guidance of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, are slight underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings, despite a strong regular season record, have shown vulnerabilities, particularly on offense with Sam Darnold at quarterback. The Rams’ offense, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, is capable of putting up big numbers. The Rams just had a bye, and the Vikings are on a low. Jefferson had three catches on 10 targets; the Vikings offense looked really, really bad. If the Rams offensive line holds up, the Rams win this game.
1. Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Topping our list as the most likely Wild Card upset is the Washington Commanders (+141) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have a dynamic offense that can score with anyone. The Buccaneers, while having a solid season, have shown inconsistencies, particularly on defense. The Commanders largely played just as well as Tampa during this season — if not better. The Buccaneers can score with anyone… but so can the Commies. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout, and in those contests, anything can happen.
The Underdog Mentality
The NFL playoffs are a different beast. Regular season records and point spreads often become irrelevant when teams are fighting for their Super Bowl dreams. The teams on this list possess the talent, coaching, and, perhaps most importantly, the underdog mentality to shock the world. As the Wild Card weekend approaches, keep an eye on these potential upsets – they could very well reshape the landscape of the 2025 NFL Playoffs.