The NFL Coaching Carousel: Does Stability Actually Lead to Super Bowl Success?
In the high-stakes world of the NFL, where fortunes can change in a single play, the pressure to win is relentless. This pressure often manifests in the infamous NFL coaching carousel, a perpetual cycle of hiring and firing that sees teams scrambling to find the next visionary leader who can deliver them to the promised land. But does this constant churn truly lead to Super Bowl success, or is stability the more reliable path to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy?
The Allure of the New
Each year, a significant portion of NFL teams opt for a change at the head coach position. In fact, over one-fifth of head coaches are replaced annually in the NFL. The appeal of a fresh start is understandable. A new coach brings new ideas, a new philosophy, and a renewed sense of hope to a franchise and its fanbase. Often, teams that change their coach improve in the first year. From 1979–2017, teams that replaced their head coach improved their record 63% of the time in the first year with their new head coach, increasing their win total by 1.3 wins. This “new coach bump” can be attributed to various factors, including a change in team culture, the implementation of new schemes, or simply the removal of an underperforming leader.
The recent hiring of Pete Carroll by the Las Vegas Raiders exemplifies this hope. Carroll, a Super Bowl-winning coach with the Seattle Seahawks, is tasked with changing the culture in Las Vegas, emphasizing teamwork and competition. Similarly, the Los Angeles Chargers are banking on Jim Harbaugh’s successful track record to revitalize their team.
The Case for Continuity
While the allure of a quick fix is tempting, a closer look at NFL history reveals that sustained success is often built on a foundation of stability. Teams that maintain consistent leadership tend to cultivate a strong organizational culture, develop players effectively, and build a cohesive long-term strategy.
Consider the Pittsburgh Steelers, who haven’t made a change at head coach since 2007, with Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years, making 11 postseason appearances. Or the Baltimore Ravens, led by John Harbaugh since 2008, maintaining a .610 winning percentage with nine playoff appearances in the same span. These franchises demonstrate that patience and trust in a coaching staff can yield consistent contention.
The Super Bowl Factor
Ultimately, the goal of every NFL team is to win the Super Bowl. So, how does coaching stability factor into achieving this ultimate prize? The data suggests that while a quick turnaround is possible, long-term success often requires a steady hand at the helm.
Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. But the trend is clear: stability matters.
The Perils of the Carousel
The constant coaching churn can have detrimental effects on a franchise. Frequent firings often lead to organizational instability, hinder player development, and create a sense of uncertainty that permeates the entire team. Teams with high turnover often cycle through new hires without addressing systemic issues. The New York Jets, with four hires since 2015, have a .341 winning percentage and zero playoff appearances in that period, are a good example of organizational instability. The Cleveland Browns have employed 10 head coaches since returning to the NFL in 1999 and are a good argument for a lack of coaching stability being a bad thing.
Finding the Right Balance
The ideal approach likely lies in finding a balance between patience and decisiveness. Teams should avoid knee-jerk reactions and give coaches ample time to implement their vision. However, they must also be willing to make a change when it becomes clear that a coach is not the right fit for the organization.
The Houston Texans offer a compelling case study. After firing coaches in back-to-back seasons, they hired DeMeco Ryans, who led them to an AFC South title and a playoff victory in his first year. This demonstrates that sometimes, a fresh start is exactly what a team needs, but it also underscores the importance of making the right hire.
The Bottom Line
The NFL coaching carousel is a complex phenomenon with no easy answers. While the allure of a quick fix is undeniable, history suggests that stability is often the key to sustained success. Teams that can find the right coach and provide them with the time and resources to build a winning culture are more likely to achieve their ultimate goal: hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
What do you think? Does stability lead to Super Bowl success? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!