Screen Game Struggles: Why NFL Teams are Overusing Inefficient Screen Passes in 2025
The roar of the crowd, the clash of helmets, and the strategic dance between offense and defense – these are the elements that define the captivating drama of the NFL. Yet, beneath the surface of explosive plays and highlight-reel moments, a subtle shift in offensive strategy has been quietly unfolding. In 2024, NFL teams collectively ran screen passes on 11% of total dropbacks, marking the third consecutive year the league surpassed a 10% screen rate. However, this increased usage hasn’t translated into greater efficiency. In fact, three of the four seasons since 2010 in which NFL teams have averaged fewer than 5 yards per screen have occurred in the past three years. So, why are teams continuing to call screen passes at a higher rate despite diminishing returns?
The Allure of the “Easy” Play
“It’s an extension of their run game.” This is a common refrain heard during NFL broadcasts when an offense deploys a quick pass or screen. The perception is that screens offer an easy way to pick up yards, mitigating the risk of negative plays while allowing the quarterback to avoid difficult throws downfield. Completion percentages on screens bear this out. In 2024, the completion percentage on screen passes was 86.0%, significantly higher than the 62.5% completion rate on non-screen passes. This perceived safety net makes screens an attractive option for offensive coordinators seeking to avoid sacks, interceptions, and other drive-killing mistakes.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Screens vs. Runs
While screens may seem like a safer alternative to traditional dropbacks, the data reveals a different story. In 2024, screens sat almost exactly between designed runs and non-screen dropbacks in the percentage of plays with an EPA (Expected Points Added) generated below 1.0. While screens offer slightly more upside for a big play compared to designed runs, they don’t come close to matching the 27% of non-screen dropbacks that generate an EPA mark above 1.0.
Even in situations where screens are expected to be most effective, such as against blitzes, the numbers don’t support the hype. In 2024, offenses were actually more efficient when running into blitzes than when calling a screen pass. This suggests that the traditional wisdom of using screens to exploit blitzing defenses may be outdated.
Case Studies: Success Stories and Cautionary Tales
Despite the league-wide struggles with screen efficiency, some teams have managed to find success with the play. The Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals all averaged at least 0.2 EPA and 6.5 yards per play on screen passes in 2024. The Buccaneers, under then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen, were particularly effective, ranking fourth in the NFL in screen usage (17.0% of dropbacks) and second in EPA per screen (0.257).
However, these success stories are the exception rather than the rule. For every well-executed screen that goes for a significant gain, there are countless others that result in minimal yardage or even a loss. The Denver Broncos, for example, were overly reliant on screens in 2024, using them to compensate for a struggling passing game. This predictability made their offense stagnant and ultimately contributed to their struggles.
The Psychology of Play-Calling
So, why do NFL coaches continue to call screen passes despite the evidence suggesting their inefficiency? The answer may lie in the psychology of play-calling. Offensive coaches often have an innate belief in their ability to call the right plays and execute at a high level. They may believe that their team can beat the averages and turn the screen into a consistently successful play.
As Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, wrote in 2021, screens are often viewed as a pass-game extension of a run call. Completion percentage on screens is significantly higher than on non-screens, mitigating some of the negative play risk that comes with incompletions in the dropback passing game. Coaches may also be drawn to screens because they reduce the likelihood of sacks and interceptions.
The Future of the Screen Game
As the NFL continues to evolve, the future of the screen game remains uncertain. While the play may never completely disappear from offensive playbooks, its usage may need to be reevaluated. Offensive coordinators may need to become more selective in their screen calls, focusing on situations where the play has the highest probability of success.
One potential area for improvement is in the design and execution of screen plays. Teams may need to develop more creative blocking schemes and route combinations to create better opportunities for their running backs and receivers. Additionally, quarterbacks need to be more decisive in their reads and throws, ensuring that the ball is delivered accurately and on time.
The league is cyclical, and a renewed emphasis on the power running game is emerging to counter defenses built to stop high-flying passing attacks. Veteran running backs like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs are key components on new teams. This shift could lead to increased run rates as teams exploit two-high coverage shells designed to limit explosive passes.
Ultimately, the success of the screen game will depend on the ability of NFL teams to adapt and innovate. By embracing data-driven decision-making and focusing on execution, teams can potentially unlock the full potential of the screen pass and turn it into a valuable weapon in their offensive arsenal.