Prove-It Year for Herbert? Why Justin Herbert Needs Playoff Success in 2025 to Cement Elite Status

Justin Herbert. The name alone conjures images of laser-rocket arm strength, pinpoint accuracy, and a cool demeanor under pressure. Drafted sixth overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020, Herbert has undeniably showcased flashes of brilliance, setting records and earning accolades along the way. In his fifth season with the Chargers, Herbert has thrown for 18,038 yards and 120 touchdowns. But despite the individual success and a lucrative contract extension, a glaring omission remains on his resume: significant playoff success. As the 2025 season approaches, the pressure mounts on Herbert to not only lead the Chargers back to the playoffs but to finally deliver a deep postseason run. Is 2025 a prove-it year for Herbert? The answer, according to many NFL analysts, is a resounding yes.

The Quarterback Conundrum: Talent vs. Trophies

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and teams invest heavily in finding their franchise signal-caller. Herbert certainly fits the bill of a modern NFL quarterback. His physical gifts are undeniable, and his arm talent allows him to make throws that few others can. In 2024, Herbert completed 332 of 504 passes for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions, achieving a passer rating of 101.7. However, individual statistics only tell part of the story.

The true measure of a quarterback, especially one commanding a $262.5 million contract, lies in their ability to elevate their team and win when it matters most. This is where Herbert’s narrative becomes complicated. Despite leading the Chargers to an 11-6 record in 2024, earning the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, the team was routed by the Houston Texans 32-12 in the wild-card game. Herbert completed only 14-of-32 pass attempts for 242 yards, with four sacks and four interceptions. One of those INTs was returned by Texans safety Eric Murray for a TD.

The Playoff Drought: A Weight on Herbert’s Shoulders

As of January 2025, Justin Herbert’s playoff record stands at 0-2. His first playoff appearance in the 2022 season against the Jacksonville Jaguars saw the Chargers infamously squander a 27-0 lead, ultimately losing 31-30. Herbert’s second appearance in the 2024 playoffs met the same fate.

These playoff losses have fueled the narrative that Herbert, despite his immense talent, struggles to perform at his best on the biggest stage. Critics point to a lack of consistency, questionable decision-making under pressure, and an inability to elevate the team when the running game falters. While Herbert has shown flashes of brilliance, stringing together dominant performances in the regular season, he has yet to translate that success into the playoffs.

The “Elite” Label: What Does It Really Mean?

The term “elite” is often thrown around in sports, but what does it truly mean for an NFL quarterback? Is it about gaudy statistics, highlight-reel plays, or something more? While individual accolades certainly contribute to the perception of an elite quarterback, the ultimate determinant is winning championships.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is widely considered the gold standard of quarterbacks in today’s NFL. Mahomes still holds the top spot, but the margin has never been slimmer. His passing grade over the past two seasons sits at 86.0, a strong number but a step below the elite level we saw from 2018 through 2022. He has multiple Super Bowl rings, MVP awards, and a reputation for delivering in clutch moments. Other quarterbacks often mentioned in the “elite” conversation, such as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, have also achieved significant regular-season success but are still chasing that elusive Super Bowl title.

For Herbert to truly enter the elite tier, he needs to demonstrate the ability to consistently lead his team to victory in the playoffs. It’s about more than just individual performance; it’s about elevating the play of those around him, making smart decisions under pressure, and ultimately, finding a way to win when the stakes are highest.

2025: A Season of High Expectations

The Los Angeles Chargers have made significant changes in recent years, including the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh reignited a stagnant franchise, transforming a below-average program into an immediate winner. Partnering with general manager Joe Hortiz, he built a playoff team not through flashy moves, but with homegrown talent, under-the-radar signings and low-profile trades. The team has assembled a talented roster around Herbert, featuring a mix of established veterans and promising young players. The Chargers’ linebacking corps was a solid group last season and they return all of their key players for 2025.

The Chargers’ 2025 schedule includes home games against the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Colts, Texans, Commanders, Eagles, Steelers and Vikings. The Bolts will also visit the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Cowboys, Giants and Dolphins. While the schedule presents its challenges, the Chargers have the talent and coaching to compete with any team in the league.

The Road Ahead: What Herbert Needs to Do

So, what does Justin Herbert need to do in 2025 to finally cement his status as an elite quarterback? Here are a few key areas to focus on:

Playoff Performance: This is the most obvious and crucial factor. Herbert needs to lead the Chargers to at least one, if not multiple, playoff victories. A deep playoff run, culminating in a Super Bowl appearance, would silence many of his critics and solidify his place among the league’s best.
Consistency Under Pressure: Herbert has shown a tendency to make mistakes in critical moments. He needs to improve his decision-making under pressure, avoid turnovers, and consistently deliver in clutch situations.
Leadership: An elite quarterback is not just a talented passer; he’s a leader who inspires his teammates and elevates their play. Herbert needs to take on a more vocal leadership role, both on and off the field, and become the unquestioned leader of the Chargers’ offense.
Adaptability: The NFL is a constantly evolving league, and Herbert needs to demonstrate the ability to adapt to different offensive schemes and game situations. Whether it’s making adjustments at the line of scrimmage or improvising when plays break down, Herbert needs to show that he can thrive in any environment.

The Verdict

Justin Herbert possesses all the physical tools and talent to become an elite NFL quarterback. However, talent alone is not enough. He needs to translate his regular-season success into meaningful playoff victories and demonstrate the leadership qualities that define the league’s best. The 2025 season represents a critical juncture in Herbert’s career. It’s a prove-it year, an opportunity to silence the doubters and finally cement his status as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. The stage is set, the pressure is on, and the world is watching to see if Justin Herbert can finally deliver.