Post-Draft NFL Playoff Picture: Projecting the Contenders and Pretenders for 2025

The 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Fresh off a Super Bowl LIX victory by the Philadelphia Eagles, the landscape has shifted dramatically thanks to free agency and the NFL Draft. As the dust settles, it’s time to analyze which teams have positioned themselves as legitimate contenders and which are destined to be pretenders. With rookie quarterbacks like Cam Ward and Drake Maye entering their second year, and established stars like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson looking to maintain their dominance, the race to the playoffs promises to be a thrilling one.

AFC: A Shifting Power Dynamic

The AFC, long dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, is witnessing a potential power shift. While the Chiefs remain a force, several teams have emerged as serious challengers.

Contenders:

Buffalo Bills: After years of near misses, the Bills are hungry for a Super Bowl title. Quarterback Josh Allen remains the heart of the offense, and the team has bolstered its defense through the draft, selecting cornerback Maxwell Hairston in the first round. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Bills have an 81% chance of making the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens: With two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson at the helm and Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Ravens boast a lethal offense. The Ravens’ defense may even take a step forward as defensive coordinator Zach Orr heads into his second season as the play caller. Baltimore also added safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green through the draft. The FPI gives the Ravens a 79% chance of making the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers: Under the leadership of coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are poised to make a significant leap. The team has focused on empowering their run game and controlling the ball, adding running back Najee Harris and bringing back veteran receiver Mike Williams. The Chargers responded to Harbaugh, posting an 11-6 record to finish second in the AFC West and return to the playoffs. The FPI gives the Chargers a 57% chance of making the playoffs.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud made a seamless transition from Ohio State to the Texans, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns in his rookie season. The Texans bolstered their offense by adding Christian Kirk. The model still sees the Texans approaching 10 wins again in 2025, projecting them to record 9.2. It feels that will be enough for Houston to finish atop the AFC South and make the playoffs for the third straight season.

Pretenders:

Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t let the Chiefs’ inflated record fool you. They are not nearly as good as the record suggests. Eleven of their wins were one-score games and could have easily gone the other way. Their offense has taken a step back without any doubt. Kelce has somewhat shown signs of aging; Mahomes needs more weapons; and they can’t seem to find solid offensive tackles. The Chiefs defense has been their strong suit this season, but they can still use some help on the defensive line and in the secondary to get them over the edge.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins hold a 12% chance of making the playoffs for the third straight season.
New York Jets: Even if Aaron Rodgers shows up they’re not beating the Ravens or Bengals.

NFC: A Conference Up for Grabs

The NFC is far more unpredictable than the AFC, with several teams undergoing significant changes in the offseason.

Contenders:

Philadelphia Eagles: Fresh off their Super Bowl LIX victory, the Eagles remain the team to beat in the NFC. The Eagles are Super Bowl Champions, and the other 31 teams did their best over the free agent period and the 2025 NFL Draft to close the gap.
Detroit Lions: Head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s gutsy calls are what separates this Lions team from the rest of the NFC teams. Key guys like Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown, LaPorta, and the entire offensive line have been exceptional this season. Also, credit is due for Aaron Glenn who has this injury-ridden Lions defense allowing the seventh-least points per game.
Washington Commanders: The Commanders are set up very well for the future, even if last year’s Texans serve as a reminder that progress isn’t always linear. The Commanders got arguably the most athletic of the bunch in Josh Conerly Jr. The No. 29 overall pick starred at left tackle for Oregon, but is likely to move to right tackle for the Commanders, providing an athletic upgrade over free-agent addition Andrew Wylie and the mobility necessary to assist the mesmerizing playmaker that is second-year star quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are going to win it i think Seattle’s defense I thought Seattle had the best draft in the NFL.

Pretenders:

Green Bay Packers: I still have my concerns about Green Bay’s cornerback room, even after the Packers signed Nate Hobbs and are reportedly looking to salvage their future with Jaire Alexander. That said, this is still a strong top-to-bottom roster with Jordan Love as the centerpiece. They’ve given themselves a higher ceiling in the wide receiver room by selecting Matthew Golden in the first round. Green Bay also invested in the offensive line, signing guard Aaron Banks to a $77 million deal in free agency and then drafting interior lineman Anthony Belton out of NC State in the second round.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers, pound for pound, assembled one of the most impactful draft classes this year. The Emeka Egbuka pick did make me question giving Chris Godwin all that money a bit, but it’s terrific insurance, at the very least. There really wasn’t a pick I disliked at all, with the Bucs doubling up at receiver, edge rusher and corner — three spots they felt they had to address. The offense looks like a monster, and the defense looks improved.
San Francisco 49ers: I did not like their draft at all i think when you look at the Niners draft I see Kyle Shanahan taking some reaches here to help him and not the future he wants to win now I didn’t like the Niners draft at all i’m not saying they’re a five- win team but I think Arizona can win 10 to 11 games.

Key Factors to Watch

Several factors will play a crucial role in determining the playoff picture as the season unfolds:

Quarterback Play: The performance of young quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy will be critical to their teams’ success.
Defensive Improvements: Teams like the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears have invested heavily in their defenses and could surprise many if those investments pay off.
Coaching Impact: New coaches like Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers and the Bears’ new head coach have the potential to transform their respective teams.

The 2025 NFL season promises to be a rollercoaster ride filled with unexpected twists and turns. While some teams have clearly positioned themselves as contenders, the NFL is known for its parity, and anything can happen once the games begin.