Playing It Safe: How Cautious Quarterbacks Like Mahomes are Rewriting the NFL Playbook
The modern NFL is a high-stakes chess match played at breakneck speed. Quarterbacks, once celebrated for their gunslinger mentality, are now increasingly lauded for their calculated caution. This shift isn’t about a lack of daring; it’s a strategic evolution, and players like Patrick Mahomes are at the forefront, redefining what it means to lead an offense.
The Rise of the Checkdown
In a league obsessed with explosive plays, the humble checkdown—a short, safe pass to a running back or tight end—might seem like an admission of defeat. However, it’s becoming an increasingly vital weapon in the arsenal of top quarterbacks. Through the first eight weeks of the 2024 season, quarterbacks are checking it down on 8.2 percent of their dropbacks. This marks a significant increase from 5.3 percent in 2020, signaling a league-wide trend toward valuing possession and minimizing risk.
Mahomes: From Gunslinger to Game Manager?
Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar, is a prime example of this evolution. In his early years, Mahomes was known for his improvisational wizardry and willingness to launch deep passes into tight coverage. But defenses have adapted, increasingly employing two-high safety coverages designed to limit explosive plays.
The numbers tell the story: Mahomes threw 51 checkdowns over his first three seasons as a starter. In the following three seasons, that number jumped to 122. While some fans might lament the perceived decrease in highlight-reel throws, this change reflects a strategic adjustment to the evolving defensive landscape. In 2024, Mahomes’ average depth of target was just 5.8 yards, ranking last in the NFL.
“When I was younger, I would just cut it loose,” Mahomes told The Kansas City Star. Now, he’s taking what the defense gives him, even if it means settling for a shorter gain.
Why the Shift?
Several factors contribute to this trend toward cautious quarterback play:
- Defensive Evolution: The rise of two-high safety coverages forces quarterbacks to make quicker decisions and prioritize short, efficient throws. These coverages make it harder to pass the ball far downfield, as players need to get it over two safeties playing deep to do so.
- Emphasis on Possession: In today’s NFL, turnovers are drive killers. A checkdown that gains a few yards is often preferable to a risky deep throw that could result in an interception.
- Analytics Revolution: Teams are increasingly using data to inform their play-calling decisions. Analytics often favor a more conservative approach, emphasizing efficiency and minimizing negative plays.
- Protecting the Quarterback: With the NFL’s increased focus on player safety, quarterbacks are more aware of the risks associated with holding onto the ball too long or forcing throws into dangerous situations. The NFL has implemented new rules to protect quarterbacks that make them almost untouchable.
The Art of the Checkdown
Not all checkdowns are created equal. A well-executed checkdown can be a valuable play, extending drives and keeping the offense on schedule. However, a poorly timed or ill-advised checkdown can stall momentum and lead to punts.
The key is knowing when to take the safe option. As Bruce Arians, former Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach, noted, “I’ve had a couple quarterbacks that just keep looking deep—they won’t throw the checkdown.” The best quarterbacks have a feel for the game and can quickly assess the risk-reward of each situation.
Young quarterbacks sometimes struggle with this differentiation. Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence have ranked near the bottom of the EPA leaderboard on checkdown throws since 2021, with a significant portion of their checkdowns coming on obvious passing downs.
The Counter-Argument: Is Caution Costing Championships?
While playing it safe can lead to regular-season success, some argue that it can hinder a team’s chances in the playoffs. In Super Bowl LIX, the Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Philadelphia Eagles 40-22. Amid the fallout, a revealing metric has emerged that could reframe his season as one of uncharacteristic caution over clutch brilliance.
Critics argue that Mahomes’ conservative approach stifled the Chiefs’ ability to counter the Eagles’ relentless defense. Missing key weapons like Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco due to injuries didn’t help, but Mahomes’ hesitation to exploit tight windows or extend plays stood in stark contrast to his “magician” reputation.
The Future of Quarterback Play
The trend toward cautious quarterback play is likely to continue as defenses become more sophisticated and analytics play an even greater role in decision-making. However, the pendulum could swing back toward a more aggressive style if teams find new ways to exploit defensive weaknesses.
Ultimately, the most successful quarterbacks will be those who can strike a balance between risk and reward, knowing when to take the safe option and when to unleash their inner gunslinger. The ability to adapt and evolve will be the defining characteristic of the next generation of NFL stars.