Overpaying or Genius? Valuing the Trades of the 2025 NFL Draft
The 2025 NFL Draft is in the rearview, and the echoes of bold trades and surprising selections still reverberate throughout the league. While some teams played it safe, others aggressively maneuvered up and down the draft board, leaving fans and analysts alike wondering: were these moves acts of sheer brilliance or gross overpayments? With the dust settling, it’s time to dissect some of the most talked-about trades and evaluate the potential returns on investment.
The Hunter Gambit: Jacksonville’s Bold Move
The Jacksonville Jaguars, coming off a disappointing 4-13 season, made the biggest splash of the draft by trading up to the No. 2 overall pick to select Travis Hunter, the dynamic two-way star from Colorado. To acquire Hunter, Jacksonville sent a king’s ransom to the Cleveland Browns, including their second-round pick, a fourth-round pick, and a 2026 first-rounder, along with two Day 3 picks in 2025.
The Rationale: Jaguars GM James Gladstone believes Hunter is a generational talent capable of “altering the sport.” Hunter’s versatility as both a shutdown cornerback and a game-breaking receiver offers a unique weapon for Jacksonville’s offense and defense. The team envisions him as a player who can contribute on both sides of the ball, maximizing his impact and justifying the hefty price tag.
The Risk: The Jaguars are betting big on Hunter’s ability to live up to the hype. They need him to be a star on both sides of the ball while playing regularly to justify paying what some analysts are calling a “franchise quarterback price” for his services. The pressure is on for Hunter to deliver immediately and transform the Jaguars into a contender.
The Verdict: Overpay? It’s a gamble, no doubt. However, if Hunter reaches his ceiling and becomes the game-changing force the Jaguars envision, the trade could be looked back upon as a stroke of genius. If he struggles or fails to live up to expectations, it will be viewed as a massive overpay that set the franchise back.
Falcons Double Down: Edge Rushers at a Premium
The Atlanta Falcons, after signing Kirk Cousins in 2024, continued their aggressive approach to roster building by trading back into the first round to select Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at pick No. 26. This move came after already selecting Georgia edge rusher Jalon Walker with their initial first-round pick (No. 15). To acquire Pearce Jr., the Falcons sent their 2026 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rationale: The Falcons clearly identified edge rusher as a critical need, aiming to bolster their pass rush and improve their overall defense. By adding both Walker and Pearce Jr., they hope to create a formidable tandem that can pressure opposing quarterbacks and disrupt offenses.
The Risk: The Falcons paid a steep price to acquire Pearce Jr., surrendering a future first-round pick. This is a significant investment in a single position, and the Falcons need both Walker and Pearce Jr. to develop into impact players to justify the cost. Some analysts have criticized the move as an overreach, arguing that the Falcons could have addressed other needs with the draft capital they surrendered.
The Verdict: Overpay. While addressing the pass rush was a priority, giving up a future first-round pick for Pearce Jr., especially after already drafting Walker, seems excessive. The Falcons are banking on both players becoming stars, but the risk is high, and the potential reward may not outweigh the cost.
Giants Gamble on Dart: A Quarterback of the Future?
The New York Giants, desperate to find a long-term answer at quarterback, traded back into the first round to select Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart with the 25th overall pick. The Giants, led by GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, sent a package of picks to the Houston Texans, including their second-round pick (No. 34), a third-round pick (No. 99), and a 2026 third-round pick.
The Rationale: Daboll is reportedly enamored with Dart’s potential, even comparing him to Josh Allen. The Giants see Dart as a quarterback with the arm talent and athleticism to develop into a franchise player. With Daniel Jones’s future uncertain, the Giants felt compelled to take a swing at a quarterback they believe in.
The Risk: Dart is a raw prospect who needs significant development. He has the tools to succeed, but he’s far from a finished product. The Giants are betting on Daboll’s ability to mold Dart into a starting-caliber quarterback. If Dart doesn’t pan out, the Giants will have wasted valuable draft capital and will continue their search for a franchise quarterback.
The Verdict: Too Early to Tell. The Giants’ decision to trade up for Dart is a high-risk, high-reward move. If Dart develops into the player Daboll believes he can be, the trade will be a success. However, if Dart struggles or fails to progress, the Giants will have set themselves back in their quest to find a quarterback.
Rams Fleece Falcons: A Masterclass in Asset Management
In perhaps the most shrewd move of the first round, the Los Angeles Rams traded down from the 26th overall pick, sending it to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for the Falcons’ second-round pick (No. 46), a 2026 first-round pick, and a seventh-round pick.
The Rationale: Rams GM Les Snead recognized the value of future draft capital, particularly in a draft class that was considered underwhelming at the back end of the first round. By trading down, the Rams acquired an additional first-round pick in 2026, giving them flexibility to address future needs or potentially trade up for a quarterback to succeed Matthew Stafford.
The Risk: The Rams passed on the opportunity to select a player in the first round, potentially missing out on an immediate contributor. However, they clearly felt that the value of the additional draft capital outweighed the potential impact of any player available at No. 26.
The Verdict: Genius. The Rams’ trade-down was a masterclass in asset management. They acquired valuable draft capital without sacrificing significant value in the short term. The additional first-round pick in 2026 gives them flexibility and optionality, positioning them for long-term success.
Browns’ Long Game: Genius or Foolhardy?
The Cleveland Browns made several unconventional moves in the 2025 NFL Draft, including trading down from the No. 2 overall spot, passing on the opportunity to select Travis Hunter, and drafting two quarterbacks (Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders) and two running backs.
The Rationale: The Browns appeared to be playing the long game, recognizing that they weren’t likely to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025. By trading down, they acquired additional draft capital, including a 2026 first-round pick from the Jaguars. They also took multiple swings at quarterback, hoping to find a long-term answer at the position.
The Risk: The Browns passed on the opportunity to select a potential game-changer in Hunter. They also face the risk of their quarterback selections not panning out, leaving them without a viable option under center.
The Verdict: Genius (Potentially). The Browns’ strategy is unconventional, but it could pay off in the long run. By accumulating draft capital and taking multiple swings at quarterback, they are increasing their odds of finding a franchise player and building a sustainable contender.
The Final Word
The 2025 NFL Draft was full of surprises and bold moves. While some teams may have overpaid for certain players, others may have positioned themselves for long-term success through shrewd trades and strategic selections. Only time will tell which teams made the right decisions, but one thing is certain: the 2025 NFL Draft will be remembered as one of the most unpredictable and intriguing in recent memory.