NFL Play Calling Tendencies: Analyzing Pass Rate, Pace, and Motion for 2025

The NFL is a constantly evolving landscape, and the 2025 season is shaping up to be another fascinating chapter in the league’s tactical history. With new coaching hires, evolving player personnel, and rule changes impacting the game, understanding the latest play-calling tendencies is crucial for fans, analysts, and fantasy football enthusiasts alike. Let’s dive into the key trends shaping NFL offenses in 2025, focusing on pass rate, pace of play, and the utilization of motion.

The Ever-Shifting Pass-Run Balance

The debate between running and passing the ball is as old as the game itself. In 2024, the NFL saw a slight dip in the overall dropback rate, falling to 59.5%, marking only the second time in the past decade it has dipped below 60%. However, this doesn’t necessarily signal a full-scale return to the running game. Instead, it reflects a more nuanced approach to offensive play-calling, with teams adapting their strategies based on personnel, game situation, and opponent.

Several factors contribute to this evolving balance. The rise of dual-threat quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson forces defenses to account for their rushing ability, opening up opportunities in the passing game. Furthermore, the increasing emphasis on offensive line versatility allows teams to seamlessly transition between run and pass blocking schemes.

Teams to Watch:

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals, led by quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, are projected to be a pass-heavy team in 2025. In the previous season, no offense passed the ball at a higher rate than the Bengals, especially on early downs when the score was close, with a 64.5% pass rate.
Seattle Seahawks: With Klint Kubiak as play caller, the Seahawks’ offenses have had a -2.0% pass rate over expectation in three of his last four stops. Kubiak leans into his QB’s style of play, and his ability to weave in tight ends and running backs will keep players like Noah Fant and Zach Charbonnet viable.

Pace of Play: The Need for Speed

Offensive pace, or the speed at which a team runs its plays, is another critical element of modern NFL play-calling. Teams like the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions have demonstrated the effectiveness of a fast-paced, no-huddle approach, keeping defenses on their heels and maximizing offensive opportunities.

However, pace isn’t just about speed. It’s also about efficiency and execution. A team that moves quickly but fails to convert first downs will ultimately tire out its own defense and limit its scoring potential. Therefore, the most successful offenses are those that can blend tempo with precision.

Teams to Watch:

Chicago Bears: With the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach, the Bears are expected to implement a faster-paced offense. Johnson’s Lions offenses were among the highest-paced in the league in 2023 and 2024, ranking third and second, respectively.
New England Patriots: The Patriots’ offensive pace in 2024, under Alex Van Pelt, was 26th in the league. The return of Josh McDaniels as play caller could bring a change, considering McDaniels’ history of balanced passing attacks and efficient play-calling.

The Art of Motion: Misdirection and Deception

Pre-snap motion, the movement of players before the snap, has become an increasingly popular tactic in the NFL. Motion can serve several purposes, including identifying defensive coverages, creating favorable matchups, and disrupting the timing of opposing defenses.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, plays utilizing pre-snap motion have been the most effective form of attack for teams. Motion rates tend to climb when teams work from under center, highlighting the versatility of this tactic.

Teams to Watch:

San Francisco 49ers: Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have long been proponents of pre-snap motion, using it to create confusion and exploit defensive weaknesses.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams, under Sean McVay, are another team that frequently utilizes motion to gain an edge. With a focus on explosive plays and adaptable formations, the Rams’ offense is always a challenge for opposing defenses.

Coaching Changes and Play-Calling Philosophies

The 2025 season has brought significant changes in coaching personnel, which will undoubtedly impact play-calling tendencies across the league. New hires like Ben Johnson in Chicago, Liam Coen in Jacksonville, and Nick Caley in Houston bring fresh perspectives and offensive philosophies to their respective teams.

Liam Coen (Jacksonville Jaguars): Coen’s arrival in Jacksonville is expected to help quarterback Trevor Lawrence live up to his potential. With a focus on YAC (yards after catch) playmakers, Coen aims to create an efficient offense with big-play potential.
Nick Caley (Houston Texans): Caley’s task is to fix the Texans’ offense after the struggles of the previous play caller. Pairing Caley with first-year offensive line coach Cole Popovich, the Texans are looking to evolve their offense and mask deficiencies.
John Morton (Detroit Lions): Taking over from Ben Johnson, Morton faces the challenge of maintaining the Lions’ explosive offense. With Jared Goff at quarterback, Morton aims to continue the team’s versatility and effectiveness.

Rule Changes and Their Impact

The NFL’s rule changes also play a significant role in shaping play-calling tendencies. The new kickoff rule, which moves touchbacks to the 35-yard line, is expected to incentivize more kickoff returns and potentially lead to more aggressive play-calling on offense.

Additionally, the league’s continued emphasis on player safety has influenced the way teams approach the game. With stricter penalties for hits to the head and other dangerous plays, offenses are increasingly focused on quick passes and minimizing quarterback exposure.

Projecting the 2025 Season

As the 2025 season approaches, several teams are poised to make significant strides on offense. The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to be among the league’s top-scoring offenses, while teams like the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to improve under new coaching regimes.

Ultimately, the success of any offense depends on a combination of factors, including talent, coaching, and execution. As the season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see which teams can effectively blend these elements and emerge as the league’s offensive powerhouses.