NFL MVP Futures: Longshot Picks with the Best Value to Win the Award

NFL MVP Futures: Longshot Picks with the Best Value to Win the Award

The NFL MVP award is often dominated by quarterbacks, with running backs occasionally breaking through. Since 1957, the Associated Press has presented the Most Valuable Player award to the NFL’s most deserving candidate. While the usual suspects like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are always in the mix, let’s dive into some longshot picks that could provide excellent value for your futures bets.

Understanding MVP Trends

Before we get into specific players, it’s important to understand some historical trends. Thirty of the last 37 players to win the NFL MVP Award were on teams with odds that were 30-1 or lower to win the Super Bowl. The last eight MVP winners have been on a team with a preseason win total of 8.5 or higher. This indicates that MVP winners typically come from teams expected to be contenders. Also, seven of the last 10 MVPs started the season with odds at +1100 or longer.

The Usual Suspects

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills have dominated the MVP conversation recently. According to early odds, Jackson is the favorite at +550, closely followed by Allen at +550. Patrick Mahomes (+750) and Joe Burrow (+750) are also top contenders. However, these players offer less value as their odds are already short.

Longshot Quarterbacks with Potential

Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) +5000: Stafford is an intriguing option at +5000. He has the potential to put up huge numbers, especially with Davante Adams joining Puka Nacua. A healthy offensive line, led by Rob Havenstein, could significantly boost the Rams’ offense. If the Rams can secure a top-two seed in the NFC, Stafford could easily find himself in the MVP conversation.

Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) +3000: Goff finished fifth in MVP voting last season. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs still on the roster, the Lions’ offense should remain potent. If Goff can replicate his 2024 performance, where he threw for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns, he could be a serious MVP contender.

C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans) +2500: Stroud had an impressive rookie season, leading the Texans to the playoffs. Despite a plateau in his second season, the arrival of Nick Caley from the Sean McVay coaching tree could unlock Stroud’s full potential. With a talented receiving corps including Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, Stroud has the weapons to put up big numbers.

Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) +3500: As a second-year quarterback in Sean Payton’s system, Nix has the opportunity to solidify his status as an MVP candidate. With a strong offensive line and a core group of skill-position players, Nix could surprise many.

The Non-Quarterback Dark Horse

Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles) +6000: Since Adrian Peterson’s spectacular 2,000-yard campaign in 2012, no non-quarterback has won the MVP award. However, Barkley has the best odds of any non-quarterback. If Barkley can replicate his performance from 2024, where he rushed for 2,000 yards and won the Super Bowl, he could break the quarterback dominance.

Why These Players Offer Value

These longshot picks offer value because they possess the talent and opportunity to exceed expectations. Stafford, Goff, and Stroud have proven they can put up impressive numbers when surrounded by the right supporting cast. Barkley, as a dynamic running back, has the potential to single-handedly carry an offense and capture the attention of voters.

Factors to Consider

  • Team Success: MVP winners typically come from teams that are Super Bowl contenders.
  • Offensive Line Health: A healthy offensive line is crucial for both quarterbacks and running backs to perform at their best.
  • Supporting Cast: A strong receiving corps and a reliable running game can elevate a quarterback’s performance.
  • Narrative: Sometimes, a compelling narrative can sway voters. Whether it’s a comeback story or a player exceeding expectations, a strong narrative can boost a player’s MVP chances.

Conclusion

While the favorites are always a safe bet, these longshot picks offer the potential for a significant return. By considering historical trends, player potential, and team dynamics, you can identify the best value bets for the NFL MVP award. Keep an eye on these players as the season approaches, and don’t be afraid to take a chance on a dark horse candidate.