Next Gen Stats 2.0: Unlocking NFL Player Performance with Advanced Metrics

The roar of the crowd, the clash of helmets, the balletic grace of a wide receiver hauling in a game-winning catch – these are the visceral thrills that define the NFL. But beneath the surface of every electrifying play lies a complex web of data, meticulously tracked and analyzed to unlock the secrets of player performance. Welcome to the world of Next Gen Stats 2.0, where advanced metrics are revolutionizing how we understand and appreciate the game.

Remember Super Bowl LVII? Patrick Mahomes, hobbled by an ankle injury, still managed to dissect the Eagles’ defense, leading the Kansas City Chiefs to victory. While his grit and determination were undeniable, Next Gen Stats provided a deeper understanding of his performance, revealing how he adjusted his pocket movement and release times to compensate for his limited mobility. This is the power of data-driven analysis – to illuminate the nuances that traditional stats often miss.

The Evolution of NFL Analytics

The NFL has always been a league of innovation, constantly seeking new ways to gain a competitive edge. From the early days of rudimentary play diagrams to the sophisticated computer models of today, analytics has steadily grown in importance. Next Gen Stats (NGS), developed in partnership with Zebra Technologies, Wilson Sporting Goods, and Amazon Web Services (AWS), represents a quantum leap in this evolution.

The 2011 collective bargaining agreement paved the way for this data revolution, with players agreeing to have their on-field location and health metrics tracked. By 2014, the NFL had partnered with Zebra Technologies to install tracking systems in every stadium. These systems, composed of ultra-wide band receivers and radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags embedded in players’ shoulder pads and even the game ball, capture a wealth of data – location, speed, distance traveled, and acceleration – at a rate of 10 times per second. This raw data is then processed using machine learning on AWS to generate advanced statistics and automate player participation reports.

Decoding the Data: Key Next Gen Stats Metrics

Next Gen Stats 2.0 offers a comprehensive suite of metrics that provide unprecedented insights into every aspect of the game. Here are some of the key metrics that are transforming how teams evaluate players, strategize game plans, and engage with fans:

Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE): This metric contextualizes quarterback performance by considering factors such as air distance, target separation, and pressure. CPOE provides a more accurate evaluation of challenging throws, highlighting quarterbacks who consistently outperform expectations. In 2024, Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, and Jared Goff were among the QBs with the best completion percentage above expectation.
Tackle Probability: This AI-driven metric, developed in collaboration with the Amazon Web Services Professional Services team, evaluates the likelihood of a successful tackle in real-time. It incorporates 20 different features for each of the 11 defenders every tenth of a second, quantifying tackling efficiency by estimating tackle opportunities, missed tackles, and group tackles.
Offensive Shift and Motion Classification: This metric analyzes pre-snap movements by offensive players, classifying them into shifts, motions, and motions at the snap. By tracking variables like speed, acceleration, and distance traveled, this metric provides deeper insights into pre-snap actions and their impact on offensive success.
Field Goal Probability 2.0: An updated model that accounts for individual kicker skill levels, estimating the likelihood of a successful field goal based on historical performance and contextual conditions.
PAT Decision Guide: Offers real-time, data-driven support for making decisions after a touchdown, comparing the odds of winning under different scenarios.

How Teams are Using Next Gen Stats 2.0

The integration of Next Gen Stats 2.0 has revolutionized how NFL teams approach player evaluation, game planning, and player development.

Player Evaluation: Teams are now relying less on traditional scouting and more on analytics to determine a player’s impact and value. Metrics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) help teams identify undervalued talents who may not shine through traditional stats but contribute significantly to the team’s dynamics.
Game Planning: Coaches are using advanced metrics to understand player performances in granular detail and make informed strategic decisions. For instance, the use of Tackle Probability and Offensive Shift and Motion Classification metrics helps teams refine their defensive and offensive strategies by analyzing players’ pre-snap movements and post-snap efficiency.
Player Development: By incorporating player performance data into training sessions, coaches can better understand each player’s performance levels leading up to game day. This allows them to balance the demands of practice and optimize training regimens to maximize performance and minimize the risk of injury.

The Fan Experience: Engaging with Data

Next Gen Stats 2.0 isn’t just for coaches and analysts; it’s also enhancing the fan experience. Broadcasters like CBS and Amazon Prime Video are incorporating NGS data into their telecasts, providing viewers with a deeper understanding of the game.

The NFL has also partnered with Amazon QuickSight to develop Combine IQ, a dynamic dashboard that transforms raw Combine data into intuitive, interactive visualizations accessible to fans worldwide. This system handles hundreds of thousands of concurrent users while updating in near real-time as new Combine data streams in.

The Future of NFL Analytics

As technology continues to evolve, the use of data in the NFL will only become more sophisticated. Machine learning and artificial intelligence will play an increasingly important role in analyzing vast datasets and uncovering hidden patterns. New metrics will emerge, providing even more granular insights into player performance and game strategy.

The future of the NFL is data-driven. By embracing advanced metrics like Next Gen Stats 2.0, teams can gain a competitive edge, coaches can optimize player development, and fans can deepen their appreciation for the game.