New Coaches, New Contenders? Examining the Impact of 2025 NFL Coaching Changes on Super Bowl 2026 Odds

The NFL is a league of constant change, where fortunes can shift dramatically in a single offseason. As we look ahead to Super Bowl LX in 2026, the coaching carousel of 2025 has left several teams with new leadership and renewed hope. But how do these changes impact their odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy? Let’s dive into the key coaching moves and their potential effect on the Super Bowl landscape.

The 2025 Coaching Carousel: A Whirlwind of Change

The 2025 offseason saw significant changes in leadership across the league. Here’s a snapshot of some of the most notable moves:

Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson, formerly the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, takes over as head coach, tasked with developing Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Johnson has also brought in Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator and Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator.
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer was promoted to head coach after serving as the offensive coordinator. He replaces Mike McCarthy.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen, previously with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is now the head coach. Grant Udinski joins him as offensive coordinator.
Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll, a Super Bowl-winning coach with the Seattle Seahawks, takes over the reins. Chip Kelly will serve as offensive coordinator.
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel, a former player and successful head coach with the Tennessee Titans, returns to New England to lead the team. Josh McDaniels is back as offensive coordinator, and Terrell Williams will be the defensive coordinator.
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore, who guided the Eagles’ offense to a Super Bowl victory, gets his first head coaching job. Doug Nussmeier will be the offensive coordinator.
New York Jets: Aaron Glenn, the former defensive coordinator for the Lions, is the new head coach. Tanner Engstrand will be the offensive coordinator.

The Impact on Super Bowl Odds: Risers and Fallers

These coaching changes have already begun to influence the odds for Super Bowl LX. Here’s a look at how some teams have seen their stock change:

Philadelphia Eagles: Despite winning Super Bowl LIX, the Eagles remain a top favorite, with odds around +600 to +650. Kellen Moore’s arrival as head coach is expected to maintain their offensive firepower.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills are consistently near the top of the odds, hovering around +650 to +800. With Josh Allen at quarterback and a favorable schedule, they are a strong contender.
Baltimore Ravens: After acquiring Jaire Alexander, the Ravens have seen their odds improve, placing them among the top contenders at +650 to +750.
Kansas City Chiefs: Despite offensive line concerns, the Chiefs remain a threat, with odds around +750 to +800.
Detroit Lions: The Lions, led by their strong offense, are considered a dark horse contender, with odds around +900 to +1000.
Washington Commanders: With Jayden Daniels at quarterback and Dan Quinn as head coach, the Commanders have seen their odds improve to around +1800 to +2200.
New England Patriots: The return of Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels has generated some buzz, with odds around +6000.
Cincinnati Bengals: Despite Joe Burrow’s talent, the Bengals’ odds remain around +2000, with some uncertainty surrounding the coaching situation.
Las Vegas Raiders: With Pete Carroll now in charge, the Raiders’ odds sit around +12000 to +15000.

Key Factors Influencing the Odds

Several factors contribute to how these coaching changes impact a team’s Super Bowl odds:

Offensive Philosophy: The shift in offensive schemes can significantly impact a team’s scoring potential. Ben Johnson’s arrival in Chicago, for example, is expected to revitalize the Bears’ offense and help Caleb Williams reach his potential. Liam Coen’s success with the Buccaneers also makes him an exciting prospect for the Jaguars.
Defensive Prowess: A strong defense is crucial for any Super Bowl contender. The Ravens’ acquisition of Jaire Alexander and the Jets hiring Aaron Glenn, known for his defensive expertise, could significantly improve their chances.
Quarterback Development: The ability of a new coach to develop the quarterback is critical. Ben Johnson’s work with Jared Goff in Detroit is a prime example of how a coach can revitalize a quarterback’s career.
Team Culture: A new coach can bring a fresh perspective and create a winning culture. Mike Vrabel’s return to New England, where he had a successful playing career, could instill a sense of discipline and determination.
Strength of Schedule: A team’s schedule can significantly impact its chances of making the playoffs and contending for a Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers, for example, have one of the easiest schedules in 2025, while the New York Giants face a challenging road.

The Underdog Factor: Which New Coaches Could Surprise?

While the established contenders remain at the top, several teams with new coaches could surprise in 2025:

Chicago Bears (Ben Johnson): With Caleb Williams under center and Johnson’s offensive expertise, the Bears could become a force in the NFC North.
New England Patriots (Mike Vrabel): Vrabel’s leadership and the return of Josh McDaniels could revitalize the Patriots, making them a playoff contender.
Washington Commanders (Dan Quinn): With a promising quarterback in Jayden Daniels and a respected coach in Quinn, the Commanders could make a leap in the NFC East.

Conclusion: The Road to Super Bowl LX is Paved with Change

The 2025 NFL coaching carousel has undoubtedly reshaped the Super Bowl landscape. While the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens remain top contenders, several teams with new coaches have the potential to surprise. As the season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these coaching changes translate into on-field success and whether a new contender emerges to challenge the established order.