Mahomes vs. Allen: Can the Bills Finally Conquer the Chiefs in Their Epic 2025 Rivalry?

For years, NFL fans have been treated to a modern-day classic: the electrifying showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. These two quarterbacks, arguably the best in the game, have engaged in battles that have redefined the landscape of the AFC. But as the 2025 season approaches, the burning question remains: Can Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills finally overcome their playoff demons and conquer Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?

A Tale of Two Quarterbacks: Regular Season vs. Playoffs

The Mahomes-Allen rivalry is a study in contrasts, particularly when examining their regular season versus playoff records. In regular-season matchups, Allen holds a 4-1 edge over Mahomes. However, the playoffs have been a different story altogether. Mahomes is a perfect 3-0 against Allen in the postseason, a statistic that looms large over this rivalry.

Their head-to-head numbers also reflect this dichotomy. In regular season games, Mahomes has thrown 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions against the Bills, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. But in the playoffs, Mahomes has been near flawless against Buffalo, completing 75.2% of his passes with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a staggering 126.6 passer rating.

Allen’s regular season success against the Chiefs hasn’t translated to the playoffs. While Allen has impressive career stats against the Chiefs with a 94.5 passer rating, 1,261 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions in 5 games, he is yet to defeat Mahomes in the playoffs.

The 2025 AFC Championship: A Battle for the Ages

The latest chapter in this epic rivalry unfolded in the 2025 AFC Championship game, where the Chiefs edged out the Bills 32-29. Mahomes improved to 4-0 against Allen in the postseason, leading the Chiefs to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons. The game was a nail-biter, with Mahomes’ rushing touchdown giving Kansas City a 29-22 lead in the fourth quarter, only for Allen to respond with a touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel, tying the game at 29-29. Ultimately, Harrison Butker’s late field goal sealed the victory for the Chiefs.

Despite the loss, Allen’s individual performance was commendable. He completed 22 of 34 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. James Cook led the Bills’ rushing attack with 85 yards and two touchdowns, while Mack Hollins had three catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Keys to Victory for the Bills

For the Bills to finally conquer the Chiefs, they need to translate their regular-season success into the playoffs. Several factors could play a crucial role in determining their fate:

Allen’s Rushing Ability: One area where Allen can exploit Mahomes is his rushing ability. In their November 2024 victory against the Chiefs, Allen had 12 rushes for 55 yards. The Bills should utilize Allen’s legs to force the Chiefs’ defense to account for designed runs and scrambles.
Third-Down Conversions: In their 2025 AFC Championship loss, the Bills struggled on third down, converting only 5 of 14 attempts. Improving their third-down efficiency will be crucial for sustaining drives and keeping Mahomes off the field.
Big Plays: While Allen connected with Mack Hollins for a 34-yard touchdown and another 32-yard reception in the AFC Championship game, the Bills need to generate more explosive plays to stretch the Chiefs’ defense.
Defense: The Bills’ defense needs to find ways to contain Mahomes and force turnovers. In their playoff matchups, Mahomes has been remarkably efficient, avoiding interceptions and making critical plays under pressure.

The Chiefs’ Dynasty Pursuit

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are aiming to establish a dynasty. With three Super Bowl titles in the last six years, they are on the cusp of joining the NFL’s elite franchises. The Chiefs’ success is built on Mahomes’ exceptional talent, Andy Reid’s coaching acumen, and a roster that consistently performs in high-pressure situations.

In the 2025 offseason, the Chiefs focused on reinforcing their roster. They re-signed key players and restructured contracts to create salary cap space. The team also added free agents like left tackle Jaylon Moore to address immediate needs. The Chiefs also drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons. Although Simmons is still recovering from a torn patellar tendon, it seems he is progressing faster than the Chiefs’ training staff originally thought he would. As a result, Simmons may be able to challenge for the starting job during training camp.

Expert Opinions and Predictions

NFL analysts are divided on who has the edge in this rivalry. Some argue that Mahomes’ playoff experience and home-field advantage make the Chiefs the favorites. Others believe that Allen and the Bills are poised to break through and finally reach the Super Bowl.

Sports Illustrated analyst Connor Orr predicted that the Bills would win Super Bowl LIX, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith has stated that Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes.

The Road Ahead

The Mahomes-Allen rivalry is set to continue in the years to come. Both quarterbacks are in their prime, and their teams are built to contend for championships. As they continue to battle on the field, NFL fans can expect more thrilling matchups and unforgettable moments.

For the Bills, the challenge is clear: they must find a way to overcome their playoff struggles against the Chiefs. With Josh Allen at the helm and a talented roster around him, they have the potential to achieve their Super Bowl aspirations. But to do so, they must conquer their ultimate rival: Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.