Injury Bug Bites: How Key Injuries Will Impact Your Fantasy Football Draft

The NFL is a brutal sport, and the “next man up” mantra is a constant reality. As fantasy football managers, we must navigate the treacherous waters of injuries to build a winning team. One wrong pick due to overlooking injury concerns can derail your entire season. Heading into the 2025 season, several key players are recovering from significant injuries, and their status will undoubtedly impact your draft strategy. Let’s dive into how the injury bug bites and how to adjust your fantasy football draft accordingly.

Quarterback Concerns: Watson’s Achilles and Stroud’s Shoulder

The quarterback position is the engine of any fantasy team, and a significant injury can leave you stranded. Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns is a prime example. After tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 7 of the 2024 season and then re-tearing it, his availability for the 2025 season is in serious doubt. Even before the injury, Watson struggled to perform at an elite level, ranking low in key metrics like yards per attempt and EPA per play. Drafting him as a QB1 would be a gamble, and it might be wise to avoid him altogether in standard leagues. The Browns may even draft a quarterback with the second overall pick.

On a more positive note, C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans is managing a sore throwing shoulder. While coach DeMeco Ryans has expressed “no concerns,” it’s something to monitor throughout the offseason. Stroud is not currently throwing at OTAs, and any setback could impact his draft stock.

Running Back Risks: McCaffrey’s Comeback and Jones’ Knee Issues

Running backs are the workhorses of fantasy football, but they are also prone to injuries due to the nature of their position. Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is aiming to bounce back after missing a significant portion of the 2024 season with Achilles and knee issues. When healthy in 2022 and 2023, McCaffrey was a fantasy superstar, earning elite PFF grades and leading the league in missed tackles forced. However, his injury history makes him a risky pick, especially in the early rounds.

Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings is another running back with an elevated injury risk. Jones, who will be 30 this year, has a history of knee issues, including multiple MCL sprains. Draft Sharks projects Jones to miss over three games this season, making him a risky option as a lead back on your fantasy team.

Wide Receiver Woes: Aiyuk’s ACL and Rice’s Recovery

The wide receiver position is filled with explosive playmakers, but injuries can quickly derail their production. Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Week 7 of last season. While he is expected to return, his recovery timeline may be delayed, potentially landing him on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list to start the season.

Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs is recovering from an LCL reconstruction. While he is expected to be ready for Week 1, projecting his fantasy production is difficult due to the uncommon nature of his injury. Historical examples of players returning from LCL surgery, such as Kyle Pitts and Javonte Williams, have struggled to regain their form.

Chris Godwin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is another receiver to monitor. He is expected to return to minicamp in May or June after an undisclosed injury. If he returns to Tampa Bay, he could provide WR2 value.

Tight End Troubles: Kittle’s Durability and Hockenson’s ACL/MCL Recovery

Tight end is often a volatile position in fantasy football, and injuries can further complicate matters. George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers has been dealing with nagging injuries throughout his career. Last season, he battled a groin issue and underwent offseason surgery for a sports hernia. Draft Sharks projects Kittle to miss two games this season, making him a risky pick.

T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL suffered in Week 16. While team representatives say he is “ahead of schedule,” he may start the season on the PUP list. Given the severity of his injury and the recovery timeline, Hockenson’s availability and production for the 2025 season are uncertain.

Strategic Drafting: Mitigating Injury Risks

So, how can you navigate the injury landscape and build a resilient fantasy team? Here are a few strategic drafting tips:

Avoid Risky Early-Round Picks: The first few rounds of your draft are crucial for building a solid foundation. Selecting injury-prone players too early can be a risky move. Prioritize durable players with a history of consistent performance to ensure your early-round picks are reliable.
Handcuff Key Players: A popular strategy among experienced managers is “handcuffing,” where you draft the backup of a player prone to injury. This ensures that you have a capable replacement if your starter goes down.
Depth is Essential: Injuries are inevitable, so building depth at each position is crucial. Focus on potential breakout players or established veterans who might have fallen in the draft. These players can provide excellent value during bye weeks or following injuries to starters.
Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on injury reports and news throughout the offseason and regular season. This will help you make informed decisions about who to draft, start, and trade.

The Injury Reserve (IR) Strategy

Effective IR management is more than just placing injured players on a list; it’s about understanding the nuances of injury reporting, utilizing roster spots wisely, and making informed decisions that balance short-term needs with long-term strategic goals.

Injury Severity: Prioritize placing players with longer-term injuries on the IR to free up roster space for healthier alternatives.
Roster Depth Consideration: Assess your team’s depth at each position before making an IR move. If you have sufficient backups, it might be less critical to rush a player to the IR.
Waiver Wire Anticipation: Anticipate which players might become available on the waiver wire and plan your IR moves accordingly. You might need to drop a currently injured player to pick up a healthier alternative.

Final Thoughts: Injury Awareness Equals Fantasy Success

Injuries are an unavoidable part of the NFL, and knowing how to manage their impact is key to a successful fantasy football season. By staying informed about high-risk players, using strategic drafting techniques, and keeping an eye on injury reports, you can build a team that is not only strong but resilient.