Early MVP Frontrunners: Projecting the Potential Super Bowl 2026 MVP Candidates

The air is already thick with anticipation for Super Bowl LX, set to electrify Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on February 8, 2026. While the confetti from Super Bowl LIX has barely settled, NFL enthusiasts are eagerly dissecting rosters, analyzing off-season acquisitions, and, of course, speculating about which player will hoist the Pete Rozelle Trophy as the game’s Most Valuable Player. With quarterbacks dominating the MVP conversation in recent years, identifying early frontrunners requires a deep dive into team dynamics, offensive potential, and individual talent poised for a breakout season.

The Quarterback Conundrum: Familiar Faces and Rising Stars

It’s no secret that the MVP award has become synonymous with quarterbacks. Looking back, quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP award 29 times. The signal-callers are the engine of their respective offenses, and their performance on the biggest stage often dictates the outcome of the game. Several established quarterbacks are already generating buzz as potential Super Bowl 2026 MVP candidates.

Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): According to several sportsbooks, Jackson is currently the favorite to win the NFL MVP for the 2025-2026 season. Despite missing out on the official recognition in 2024, Jackson’s numbers speak volumes. In 2024, he became the first quarterback in league history to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in the same year. With the Ravens consistently in contention, Jackson’s dual-threat ability makes him a perennial MVP threat.
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): Allen is coming off his first MVP season. The Bills have been knocking on the door for years, and with a talented roster and Allen’s exceptional arm strength and mobility, they are expected to be a force in the AFC. If Allen can lead the Bills to the Super Bowl and deliver a stellar performance, he’ll be a strong contender for MVP honors.
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs): Despite a “regression” by his standards in the 2024 season, it would be foolish to count out Mahomes. The Chiefs are always a threat, and with Mahomes’ unparalleled talent and Super Bowl experience, he’s more than capable of adding another MVP trophy to his collection.
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): Burrow’s impact on the Bengals is undeniable. Even without a playoff berth in 2024, there was a strong case that his impact merited far more recognition. He led the NFL in dropbacks (725) yet maintained elite efficiency, finishing the regular season with a league-best 93.0 PFF passing grade, the eighth-highest ever recorded in the PFF era. If the Bengals can shore up their defense, Burrow has the potential to lead them on a deep playoff run and contend for MVP honors.
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders): The reigning 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year has a prime opportunity to elevate his profile even further in 2025, with a chance to join Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as recent quarterbacks who captured MVP honors in just their second NFL season. Daniels was electric in his debut campaign, delivering one of the best rookie seasons PFF has ever graded. His 89.6 overall PFF grade ranked top five among all qualifying quarterbacks in 2024 and stands as the second-highest ever recorded by a first-year passer.

Beyond the Quarterback: Skill Position Stars with MVP Potential

While quarterbacks dominate the MVP landscape, history has shown that exceptional performances from other positions can sway voters.

Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles): It’s been more than a decade since a running back last claimed NFL MVP honors — Adrian Peterson in 2012 — but Saquon Barkley came closer than most in 2024, finishing third in the voting. Barkley became just the ninth player in league history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards, yet, like Derrick Henry in 2020, even that milestone wasn’t enough to break the award’s quarterback stronghold. In today’s NFL, it would take a truly historic achievement to shift the narrative.
Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars): Hunter is a unique player who could certainly put himself in the conversation with an impressive season. Let’s say he goes over 1,000 yards receiving on offense and comes up with six interceptions on defense (a number that would have ranked third in the NFL last season). That kind of production would likely be enough to earn him some MVP votes.

The Dark Horse Candidates: Players Poised for a Breakout

Identifying potential MVP candidates also involves looking beyond the established stars and considering players on the cusp of greatness. These dark horse candidates possess the talent and opportunity to make a significant impact in the 2025 season and potentially steal the Super Bowl MVP spotlight.

Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders): The Raiders took and bet on Jeanty’s three-down potential early. He profiles as an immediate RB1 with dual-threat capability. Jeanty ran with exceptional contact balance and low pad level at Boise State, regularly turning the inside zone into chunk yardage. His addition has already nudged Las Vegas’ projected NFL win totals upward in some sportsbooks, signaling growing confidence in the team’s revamped offense.
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Mayfield got two fifth-place votes last season, but he deserves deeper consideration. The Buccaneers had a top-five offense in 2024, and Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. This season, he will throw to receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka.

Predicting the Unpredictable: Factors Influencing the MVP Race

Ultimately, predicting the Super Bowl MVP is a fool’s errand. Numerous factors can influence the outcome, including injuries, unexpected breakout performances, and the ever-shifting landscape of the NFL. However, by analyzing team dynamics, individual talent, and potential breakout candidates, we can begin to identify the early frontrunners who could be hoisting the Pete Rozelle Trophy in February 2026.