Draft Day Risks: Which NFL Teams Are Gambling on Injured Prospects in 2025?

The NFL Draft is a high-stakes game of chance, where teams meticulously evaluate talent, character, and, perhaps most critically, the medical history of potential players. In the 2025 NFL Draft, several teams faced the dilemma of whether to gamble on prospects with significant injury concerns. With careers and team success hanging in the balance, these decisions could prove to be either masterstrokes or crippling errors.

The High-Risk, High-Reward Equation

Injuries are an unavoidable part of football, but their impact on a player’s draft stock can be significant. A serious injury can scare teams away from a high draft pick, leading to a player’s slide down the draft board. However, some teams are willing to take the risk, betting on their medical staff’s ability to rehabilitate the player and unlock their full potential.

As Terry Fontenot, the Atlanta Falcons’ general manager, noted, every year teams face the reality that some players are deemed “unfit to draft” due to medical or character concerns. This makes the evaluation process all the more crucial, as teams must weigh the potential reward against the inherent risk.

Notable Injured Prospects in the 2025 Draft

Several highly touted prospects entered the 2025 NFL Draft with injury clouds hanging over their heads. Here are a few notable examples:

Shavon Revel Jr. (East Carolina, CB): Revel, a projected first-round pick, suffered an ACL tear in September 2024. While his elite athleticism and ball skills remain enticing, his availability for training camp and the start of his rookie season was in doubt. Despite this, teams remained optimistic about his long-term potential as a cornerstone in the secondary.
Josh Simmons (Ohio State, OT): Simmons, a top offensive line prospect, suffered a left patellar tendon rupture in October. Although recovery from this injury is typically challenging, Simmons reported being ahead of schedule, and his Combine medical evaluations were positive. The Kansas City Chiefs, in need of a franchise left tackle, selected Simmons with the 32nd overall pick, hoping he could recover fully and live up to his potential.
Will Johnson (Michigan, CB): Johnson’s injury history, including knee surgery in 2023, a shoulder injury in 2024, and a turf toe injury, raised concerns about his durability. Despite earning All-American honors, his slide in the draft was a direct result of these medical red flags. The Arizona Cardinals, however, saw an opportunity to snag a potential top-10 talent at a discount, selecting Johnson in the second round.
Deone Walker (Kentucky, DL): Walker was found to have a stress fracture in his back during Combine medical evaluations. This raised concerns about his long-term durability, especially given the physical demands of playing defensive line.
Abdul Carter (Penn State, EDGE): Carter was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right foot during the NFL Scouting Combine. While the injury wasn’t severe enough to significantly affect his draft position, it required ongoing rehab and careful monitoring.

Teams Willing to Gamble

Several teams demonstrated a willingness to gamble on injured prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft:

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs, known for their shrewd drafting and ability to develop talent, took a chance on Josh Simmons in the first round. Despite the knee injury, they believed in his potential to become a franchise left tackle.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals, looking to rebuild their defense, selected Will Johnson in the second round, banking on his talent outweighing the injury risks.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints gambled on Tyler Shough, a quarterback with immense talent but also durability concerns, hoping he could develop into their future starter.

The Evaluation Process

NFL teams employ a thorough evaluation process to assess the risk associated with drafting injured players. This process involves:

Medical Evaluations: Teams conduct extensive medical evaluations at the NFL Combine and during individual team visits. These evaluations help determine the severity of the injury, the player’s recovery progress, and the likelihood of re-injury.
Rehabilitation Plans: Teams assess the player’s rehabilitation plan and their commitment to the recovery process. Players who demonstrate resilience and dedication to their rehab are viewed more favorably.
Team Doctors: Team doctors play a crucial role in evaluating medical reports and advising general managers on the risks associated with drafting a particular player.
Injury History: Teams consider the player’s entire injury history, looking for patterns and potential red flags.

Success Stories and Cautionary Tales

History is filled with examples of players who overcame injuries to have successful NFL careers, as well as those whose careers were derailed by recurring health issues.

Todd Gurley: Gurley tore his ACL in college but was still drafted 10th overall by the St. Louis Rams. He went on to become one of the league’s top running backs before injuries ultimately shortened his career.
Adrian Peterson: Peterson suffered a major knee injury in 2011 but returned the following season to rush for over 2,000 yards and win the NFL MVP award.
Sidney Jones: Jones tore his Achilles during his Pro Day and fell to the second round. His career never matched the potential he showed before the injury.

The Aftermath

Drafting injured players is a calculated risk that can significantly impact a team’s success. While some players defy the odds and become stars, others struggle to stay healthy and never reach their potential. As the 2025 season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see which teams made the right gambles and which ones will regret their decisions.