Draft Day Deception? Analyzing the True Value of NFL Draft Pick Trades
The NFL Draft. A time of hope, dreams, and, often, head-scratching decisions. Every year, teams gamble on the future, trading valuable assets for the chance to select the next superstar. But how often do these draft day deals truly pay off? Are NFL teams accurately assessing the value of draft picks, or are they falling victim to “Draft Day Deception?”
Consider the Chicago Bears. General Manager Ryan Poles, armed with the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, faces a critical decision. Does he stay put and select a prospect, or does he trade up or down to maximize his team’s potential? The Bears’ recent trade history offers a glimpse into the complexities of draft pick valuation. In March 2025, they acquired veteran offensive lineman Jonah Jackson from the Los Angeles Rams for a 2025 sixth-round pick, a move aimed at bolstering their offensive line. However, they also traded away a 2025 fourth-round pick to the Buffalo Bills in 2024 to move up in the fifth round and select defensive end Austin Booker. These moves highlight the constant balancing act between immediate needs and long-term asset management.
The Allure of the Top Pick
The allure of the top pick is undeniable. The chance to select a potential franchise cornerstone is a powerful draw, often leading teams to part with significant draft capital. The Los Angeles Rams, known for their aggressive approach to roster building under General Manager Les Snead, exemplified this in 2016 when they traded a king’s ransom to the Tennessee Titans for the No. 1 overall pick, which they used to select quarterback Jared Goff. The Rams sent their first-round pick (2016), two second-round picks (2016), a third-round pick (2016), a first-round pick (2017), and a third-round pick (2017) to move up from No. 15. While Goff eventually led the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, the trade’s long-term value is debatable, especially considering the Titans used those picks to acquire players like Derrick Henry.
The Jimmy Johnson Chart and Beyond
For decades, NFL teams have relied on draft value charts to quantify the worth of each pick. The most famous of these is the Jimmy Johnson chart, created in the early 1990s by then-Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson and his vice president Mike McCoy. This chart assigns a numerical value to each pick, with the first overall pick worth 3,000 points and subsequent picks decreasing in value. Johnson used this chart to great effect, accumulating draft capital and building a dynasty in Dallas.
However, the Johnson chart is not without its critics. Some argue that it overvalues early-round picks and doesn’t accurately reflect the true market value of draft selections. Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, business professors, published “The Loser’s Curse” in 2005, arguing that NFL teams consistently overestimate the value of high draft picks.
Alternative Valuation Models
In recent years, alternative draft valuation models have emerged, attempting to improve upon the Johnson chart. These models often incorporate advanced analytics and historical data to more accurately assess the value of draft picks. One such model, Uber Draft Value, analyzes over 500 trades since 2002 and assigns unique values to all seven rounds of draft picks, as well as future picks. This model aims to provide a more comprehensive and accurate assessment of draft pick value, accounting for factors such as the diminishing returns of later-round picks and the value of future selections.
The Risk-Reward of Trading Up
Trading up in the draft is inherently risky. Teams often mortgage their future by sacrificing multiple high-value picks for the chance to select a player they believe will be a star. However, there’s no guarantee that the player will live up to the hype. The success rate of top-10 picks is surprisingly low. According to a 2020 study by The Hog Sty, only 10% of top-10 picks become franchise-changing multiple All-Pro players, while nearly 9% are outright busts.
Despite the risks, trading up can be a worthwhile gamble if a team identifies a player they believe can transform their franchise. The Kansas City Chiefs‘ trade for Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft is a prime example. The Chiefs traded up from the 27th overall pick to the 10th spot, sending the Buffalo Bills their first-round pick, a third-round pick, and a 2018 first-round pick. Mahomes has since led the Chiefs to multiple Super Bowl victories and established himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, making the trade a resounding success.
The Art of Trading Down
Trading down, on the other hand, is a more conservative approach. Teams that trade down accumulate additional draft picks, increasing their chances of finding valuable players later in the draft. This strategy can be particularly effective in drafts that are deep at certain positions.
The Chicago Bears might consider trading down from the No. 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft if they don’t see a can’t-miss prospect available. By trading down, they could acquire additional picks in the second and third rounds, allowing them to address multiple needs on their roster. According to a video analysis by Bears News on Youtube, the Bears could trade the number 10 and number 149 pick to the Seattle Seahawks. In return, the Bears would receive number 18 and number 52. This trade would allow Chicago to move back a few spots while still landing quality players to fill their key needs.
Draft Day Deception: Fact or Fiction?
So, is “Draft Day Deception” a real phenomenon? The evidence suggests that it is, at least to some extent. Teams often overvalue early-round picks and underestimate the risk associated with trading up. However, successful draft day trades can be transformative, leading to Super Bowl victories and long-term success.
Ultimately, the true value of a draft pick trade can only be assessed years later, after the players involved have had a chance to prove themselves on the field. Until then, NFL teams will continue to gamble on the future, hoping to avoid the pitfalls of “Draft Day Deception” and find the next generation of superstars.