Does Rest Matter? Analyzing the Impact of Rest Differentials on NFL Game Outcomes in 2025
The NFL is a relentless battle of attrition, a weekly grind where physical and mental fortitude are tested to their limits. As the 2025 season approaches, a crucial question looms large: Does rest truly matter? In a league obsessed with optimizing every possible advantage, the impact of rest differentials on game outcomes is a subject of intense debate. With the Detroit Lions having a historically good rest advantage in 2025, and the Las Vegas Raiders having the worst rest edge for the 2025 NFL season, it is important to analyze the impact of rest differentials on NFL game outcomes.
The Evolving Landscape of Rest in the NFL
In today’s NFL, where parity is a constant pursuit, even the slightest edge can be the difference between victory and defeat. Rest, or the lack thereof, has become a focal point in schedule analysis and game preparation. Rest differential is the difference in the number of days in which the two teams have off prior to their gameday. A logical hypothesis would be that a team with more rest is more likely to win, especially in an extremely violent game like football. However, research produced in the summer of 2024 by league office personnel Mike Lopez and Tom Bliss seems to indicate that rest differentials do not significantly affect game outcomes anymore.
Warren Sharp breaks down how the 2025 NFL schedule gives certain teams a major rest edge and how that edge affects performance, outcomes, and betting returns. He also shares that teams on a short week road game have covered the spread just 48.3% of the time over the last decade.
Key Findings and Observations for 2025
Several key observations emerge when analyzing the 2025 NFL schedule through the lens of rest:
- The Lions’ Historic Advantage: The Detroit Lions have emerged as the clear winners in the rest department. According to ESPN’s Brian Burke, the Lions have one of the best rest advantages of any team over the last 23 years. Detroit’s schedule holds a plus-13 rest advantage, which is best in the league and second only to the 2024 Baltimore Ravens since 2002. The Lions are the first team in NFL history to play five opponents off a Monday Night Football game who then must play on a short week with one less day of rest.
- The Raiders’ Rest Disadvantage: On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Las Vegas Raiders face a daunting challenge. The Raiders have the worst rest edge for the 2025 NFL season. The Raiders have 19 fewer days of rest than their opponents.
- The Dolphins’ Advantage: With the Dolphins, they’ll have three games when they’ll be at a rest advantage, which includes their Week 13 matchup at home against the New Orleans Saints. They’ll be coming off the Week 12 bye, while New Orleans will be taking on the Atlanta Falcons at home before this head-to-head. That gives Miami a massive +7 advantage for that week.
- The Rams’ Advantage: As for Los Angeles, the Rams also get the Saints after their bye week, setting up a +7 scenario. The Rams will also have +3 advantages at Baltimore (Week 6) and at Atlanta (Week 17), while owning a slight +1 advantage when they visit Carolina in Week 13.
The Argument Against Rest
Despite the intuitive appeal of the “rest equals wins” theory, some analysts argue that its impact is overstated. The research hinted that there could be a very slight advantage (+0.48 points) in favor of the team with the MiniBye, though evidence was not strong enough to call it “significant”.
Coaching and Preparation: Maximizing Rest Opportunities
Ultimately, the impact of rest differentials hinges on how coaching staffs leverage these opportunities. Teams with a rest advantage must maximize their preparation, fine-tune their game plans, and ensure their players are physically and mentally primed.
The International Factor
As the NFL continues to expand its global footprint, the impact of international games on rest and recovery cannot be ignored. The NFL is beginning to expand where its games can be played. Games in 2025 will be played in Brazil, Ireland, England, Germany, and Spain. The Vikings, notably, will be playing back-to-back Sundays in Ireland and England.
Conclusion: Rest as One Piece of the Puzzle
In conclusion, while the debate surrounding rest differentials in the NFL continues, it’s clear that rest is just one piece of a complex puzzle. Factors such as coaching acumen, player health, and in-game adjustments remain critical determinants of success. As the 2025 season unfolds, it will be fascinating to observe how teams navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the schedule, and whether those extra days of rest truly translate into victories on the field.