Divisional Round Upset Alert! Underdog Picks That Could Shock the NFL Playoffs

The NFL playoffs are a stage where legends are made, and where unexpected heroes rise. While the top seeds often dominate, the Divisional Round has a history of delivering shocking upsets. In the 2025 playoffs, several underdogs are poised to challenge the established order and rewrite the script. Could we see a seismic shift in the Super Bowl landscape? Let’s dive into the potential for upsets that could leave fans and analysts stunned.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: Can C.J. Stroud Topple Mahomes?

The Houston Texans, led by rookie sensation C.J. Stroud, face a daunting task against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs, who secured the AFC West title, are looking to make their seventh straight AFC Championship game appearance. While the Chiefs won their regular season match-up 27-19, the playoffs are a different beast.

Why the Texans Could Upset:

Stroud’s Poise: Stroud has demonstrated remarkable poise for a rookie, leading the Texans to a Wild Card victory. His ability to make quick decisions and deliver accurate passes under pressure could be key to keeping the Texans in the game.
Defensive Pressure: The Texans’ defense, spearheaded by Danielle Hunter, can disrupt Mahomes. Hunter led the league with a 26% pass rush win rate this year.
Third-Down Defense: The Chiefs’ biggest strength is their third-down offense. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it’ll be because of their third-down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams from converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%.

The Challenge:

Mahomes’ Playoff Prowess: Mahomes is nearly unstoppable in the playoffs, especially against the Texans. In five career games against Houston, he has 14 touchdowns and just one interception.
Chiefs’ Defense: The Chiefs defense is the healthiest it’s been in quite some time.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: Can Daniels Continue His Heroics?

The Washington Commanders, fresh off a Wild Card win, travel to Detroit to face the Lions. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, leading the Commanders to their first playoff win since 2005. However, the Lions, who dominated the Vikings in Week 18, present a formidable challenge.

Why the Commanders Could Upset:

Daniels’ Clutch Performances: Daniels led the Commanders to their sixth comeback win last week after trailing in the fourth quarter. That is the most by any rookie starting quarterback since the start of 1950 (including the regular season and the playoffs).
McLaurin’s Impact: Getting star receiver Terry McLaurin involved is crucial. Daniels doesn’t feel pressure; he’s laughing in the huddle in do-or-die moments.
Lions’ Turnovers: The Lions’ inability to protect the ball could be their downfall.

The Challenge:

Lions’ High-Powered Offense: Detroit’s offense can score in so many ways.
Home Field Advantage: The Lions have won five consecutive games at home against Washington.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: Can Stafford Conquer the “Monday Night Curse?”

The Los Angeles Rams, buoyed by an emotional Wild Card victory, face a tough road test against the Philadelphia Eagles. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay will need to overcome the “Monday Night Curse,” as teams playing on Monday night in the wild-card round have struggled in the Divisional Round.

Why the Rams Could Upset:

Stafford’s Experience: Stafford’s experience and McVay’s play-calling can keep the Rams in the game.
Defensive Momentum: The Rams’ defense, which dominated the Vikings, can disrupt Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense.
McVay’s Short Rest Record: Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

The Challenge:

Eagles’ Dominance: The Eagles are 13-1 in their last 14 games and have not lost at home since Week 2 against Atlanta.
Eagles’ Defense: The Eagles had the league’s No. 1 total defense and pass defense in 2024, and they ranked second in rushing offense.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: Can Allen Outduel Jackson?

In what many consider the game of the week, the Baltimore Ravens travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, two of the leading MVP candidates, will go head-to-head in a game that promises fireworks.

Why the Bills Could Upset:

Allen’s Dual-Threat Ability: Allen’s ability to pass and run makes him a nightmare for defenses.
Home Field Advantage: The Bills are 9-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 17.4 points.
Bills as Home Underdogs: Postseason home pups have proved profitable in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS count since 2020. Take it back to 2015, and home underdogs have come through at a 75% clip (10-3-1 ATS).

The Challenge:

Jackson’s MVP Caliber: Jackson became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 40 or more touchdown passes with five or fewer interceptions.
Ravens’ Defense: Baltimore’s defense has been dominant, holding six of their last seven opponents to 285 yards or fewer.
Ravens’ Week 4 Win: The Ravens dominated the Bills 35-10 in Week 4.

Conclusion: Expect the Unexpected

While the higher seeds are favored, the NFL playoffs are known for their unpredictability. The Texans, Commanders, Rams, and Bills all have the potential to pull off upsets and advance to the Conference Championships. Whether these underdogs can defy the odds remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the Divisional Round promises to be filled with drama, excitement, and the potential for shocking upsets that will reshape the Super Bowl landscape.