Decoding Special Teams: Advanced Analytics That Are Changing How NFL Teams Win
In the high-stakes world of the NFL, where games are often decided by a razor-thin margin, the importance of special teams is no longer a secret. For years, this crucial aspect of the game was often overlooked, relegated to an afterthought behind the flashier offenses and bone-crushing defenses. However, a new wave of advanced analytics is changing the way teams evaluate, strategize, and ultimately, win with their special teams units. As the Dallas Cowboys have shown with their consistent special teams point production, excelling in this area can provide a significant edge.
The Evolution of Special Teams Analysis
Traditionally, special teams analysis relied on basic statistics like field goal percentage, punt distance, and return yardage. While these metrics still hold value, they fail to capture the nuances and contextual factors that truly drive success. For instance, a punter’s net yardage can be heavily influenced by field position, making it difficult to compare players fairly. Similarly, return yardage doesn’t account for the quality of coverage or the difficulty of the return attempt.
Enter advanced analytics, which leverage sophisticated data models to provide a more comprehensive and insightful view of special teams performance. These models consider a wide range of variables, including:
- Expected Points Added (EPA): This metric quantifies the impact of a special teams play on a team’s expected score, based on field position and down and distance. A successful punt that pins the opponent deep in their own territory will generate a positive EPA, while a missed field goal will result in a negative EPA.
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA): Popularized by Football Outsiders, DVOA compares a team’s performance on special teams to the league average, adjusting for the strength of their opponents. This allows for a more accurate assessment of a unit’s true effectiveness.
- Win Probability Added (WPA): WPA measures how much a player’s actions contribute to their team’s chances of winning at any given moment during a game. A game-winning field goal, for example, will have a significant positive WPA.
- Tackle Probability: This Next Gen Stat helps to analyze tackling efficiency, showing how a player’s decisions and actions influence game outcomes.
By incorporating these advanced metrics, teams can gain a deeper understanding of which special teams plays and players are truly contributing to winning football.
Strategic Advantages Through Data
The insights gleaned from advanced analytics are not just for evaluation purposes; they also inform strategic decision-making on game day. Coaches are now using data to optimize their special teams play-calling in a variety of ways:
- Punt Direction: Analytics can identify the optimal direction to punt the ball, based on the opponent’s return tendencies and the coverage team’s strengths. For example, punting towards a sideline and forcing the returner to the center of the field can limit return yardage.
- Go for it Decisions: Teams are now using data to determine when to go for it on fourth down, rather than attempting a field goal or punting. The “4-back” concept, a QB/RB hybrid player who can run, pass, or punt on 4th down, is one potential innovation that could emerge from this trend.
- Kickoff Strategy: Data can help teams decide whether to kick the ball deep, attempt a pooch kick, or execute an onside kick, based on the opponent’s return capabilities and the game situation.
- Personnel Groupings: Analyzing the performance of different players on special teams units can help coaches identify the most effective combinations. For instance, the performance of gunners (punt team players who specialize in running down the returner) and vises (the return team players who attempt to prevent the gunners from running down the returner) can significantly impact return yardage.
Player Performance and Development
Advanced analytics are also transforming the way teams evaluate and develop special teams players. By tracking metrics like coverage speed, tackling efficiency, and blocking effectiveness, coaches can identify players who excel in specific roles and tailor their training accordingly.
For example, the Los Angeles Chargers have found success with Cameron Dicker, who set multiple records in 2024, and Derius Davis, who provides a spark in the return game. Nick Niemann also earned the top Pro Football Focus special teams grade on the team. These players demonstrate the value of identifying and developing talent specifically for special teams.
Furthermore, analytics can help teams identify undervalued players who may not be stars on offense or defense but can make a significant impact on special teams. These “unsung heroes,” such as long snappers, gunners, and wedge busters, are essential to a team’s success.
The Future of Special Teams
As advanced analytics continue to evolve, their impact on special teams will only grow stronger. We can expect to see further innovations in areas such as:
- AI-powered scouting: Artificial intelligence could be used to identify special teams talent in college and other leagues, based on a wide range of data points.
- Virtual reality training: VR simulations could be used to train special teams players in a safe and controlled environment, allowing them to practice different scenarios and improve their decision-making.
- Real-time data analysis: Coaches could have access to real-time data on special teams performance during games, allowing them to make adjustments on the fly.
The Green Bay Packers’ struggles on special teams in the 2021 season, where they ranked last in several key metrics, serve as a cautionary tale. Their deficiencies were ultimately exposed in the playoffs, highlighting the importance of this often-overlooked aspect of the game.
Decoding special teams through advanced analytics is no longer a luxury; it’s a necessity for NFL teams that want to compete at the highest level. By embracing data-driven strategies, teams can unlock hidden advantages, optimize their play-calling, and ultimately, change how NFL teams win.