Darnold’s Worth: Projecting the QB’s Next Contract in Free Agency

The Carolina Panthers traded a king’s ransom for Sam Darnold in 2021, hoping he would become their franchise quarterback. After a tumultuous tenure, Darnold finds himself on the precipice of free agency once again. With his career at a crossroads, the question on everyone’s mind is: what is Sam Darnold’s worth on the open market?

Darnold’s journey has been a rollercoaster. Drafted third overall by the New York Jets in 2018, he was immediately thrust into the spotlight. While flashes of brilliance were evident, consistent success proved elusive amidst the Jets’ organizational struggles. A change of scenery to Carolina didn’t immediately unlock his potential, and he eventually landed with the San Francisco 49ers as a backup. Now, after a season backing up Brock Purdy and showing some promise in limited action, Darnold is looking for another opportunity.

Evaluating Darnold’s Strengths and Weaknesses

To accurately project Darnold’s next contract, we must objectively assess his strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths:

Arm Talent: Darnold possesses undeniable arm talent. He can make all the throws required in the NFL, displaying impressive velocity and accuracy when his mechanics are sound.
Mobility: He’s more mobile than given credit for, capable of extending plays and making throws on the run. This adds a dimension to his game that some pocket-passers lack.
Experience: Despite his struggles, Darnold has accumulated significant NFL experience. He’s started a considerable number of games, providing him with a valuable understanding of the complexities of the professional game.
Potential: At 27 years old, Darnold still has time to develop and refine his skills. A team might see him as a reclamation project with untapped potential.

Weaknesses:

Inconsistency: Consistency has been Darnold’s Achilles’ heel. He’s prone to stretches of poor decision-making, leading to turnovers and stalled drives.
Decision-Making: His decision-making under pressure needs improvement. He sometimes forces throws into tight coverage, resulting in interceptions.
Accuracy: While he possesses the arm talent to make accurate throws, his accuracy can be erratic, particularly when his mechanics break down.
Durability: Darnold has missed games due to injuries throughout his career, raising concerns about his long-term durability.

The Quarterback Market Landscape

The demand for quarterbacks in the NFL significantly influences their market value. Several teams are perpetually searching for a franchise quarterback, creating a supply-and-demand dynamic that can inflate contracts. This year’s free agency quarterback class includes Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Russell Wilson, among others. Where Darnold fits into this mix will dictate his potential offers.

Projecting Darnold’s Contract

Several factors will determine Darnold’s next contract:

Team Needs: Teams with a clear need at quarterback or those seeking a reliable backup will be more willing to invest in Darnold.
Scheme Fit: Teams running an offense that aligns with Darnold’s strengths will be more interested in acquiring his services. For example, a team that values mobility and play-action passing might see him as a good fit.
Coaching Staff: A coaching staff with a proven track record of developing quarterbacks could be intrigued by Darnold’s potential.
Contract Structure: The structure of the contract, including guaranteed money and incentives, will play a crucial role in determining its overall value.

Given these factors, projecting Darnold’s contract requires a nuanced approach. He’s unlikely to command a top-tier quarterback salary. However, he could receive a contract that reflects his potential as a starter or high-end backup.

Possible Scenarios:

Scenario 1: The Bridge Quarterback: A team needing a short-term solution at quarterback might sign Darnold to a one- or two-year deal worth \$10-15 million per year. This would provide them with a capable starter while they develop a younger quarterback or explore other options.
Scenario 2: The High-End Backup: A team with an established starter might see Darnold as an upgrade over their current backup. In this scenario, he could sign a two- or three-year deal worth \$5-8 million per year, providing them with a reliable option in case of injury.
Scenario 3: The Reclamation Project: A team with a strong coaching staff and a patient approach might view Darnold as a reclamation project. They could sign him to a two-year deal with a lower base salary and incentives tied to performance, giving him an opportunity to prove himself.

Potential Landing Spots

Several teams could be potential landing spots for Darnold:

Atlanta Falcons: With questions surrounding their quarterback situation, the Falcons could see Darnold as a potential bridge option.
Denver Broncos: After the Russell Wilson experiment failed, the Broncos might look to Darnold as a stopgap solution while they rebuild.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders need to find a long-term answer at quarterback, and Darnold could compete for the starting job.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins’ future with the Vikings is uncertain, and Darnold could provide competition and depth at the quarterback position.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith played well, but the Seahawks could bring in Darnold to push him and provide a different skillset.

The Verdict

Sam Darnold’s worth in free agency is a complex equation. While his past struggles are undeniable, he still possesses the talent and potential to be a valuable asset to an NFL team. His next contract will likely reflect his status as a bridge quarterback or high-end backup, with the possibility of a reclamation project depending on the team and coaching staff involved. Ultimately, Darnold’s success will depend on finding the right fit and maximizing his opportunities.