Chess on the Gridiron: Analyzing Evolving Offensive and Defensive Tactics in the NFL
The NFL, a league celebrated for its raw athleticism and strategic complexity, continues to evolve into a high-stakes chess match. Each season brings new wrinkles in offensive and defensive tactics, demanding constant adaptation from players and coaches alike. As the 2025 season approaches, it’s time to dissect the key trends shaping the modern game. In 2024, the average passing yards per game dropped to 403, the lowest since 1993, signaling a significant shift in how teams approach offense and defense.
The Adaptable Play Caller: A Prerequisite for Success
Predictability is a death sentence in today’s NFL. The most successful coaches are those who can adapt their schemes to exploit opponent weaknesses and maximize their players’ strengths. Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers and Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams exemplify this adaptability. Even after the 49ers fell short of expectations in 2024, Shanahan remains the standard, constantly evolving his offense. McVay, similarly, has morphed his offensive approach, with the Jared Goff-led offense bearing little resemblance to the current Matthew Stafford-led attack. According to The 33rd Team, adaptability and a well-defined plan are crucial, potentially outweighing even the most talented players.
Shanahan’s 2024 offense, for instance, featured less play-action than ever before, focusing instead on deeper passing plays. This adaptability extends beyond individual games; it’s about evolving the entire offensive philosophy.
The Shanahan and McVay Coaching Tree
The influence of Shanahan and McVay extends beyond their own teams. Their innovative offensive systems have spawned a coaching tree that’s reshaping the league. Coaches like Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers, Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings, and Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins have all implemented variations of the Shanahan-McVay system, emphasizing pre-snap motion, outside zone runs, and play-action passing. As of early 2025, 11 of the league’s offensive play callers have direct connections to Shanahan and/or McVay, showcasing the rapid spread of their influence.
The Rise of Two-High Safety Looks
Defensive schemes are also evolving, with a significant increase in the use of two-high safety looks. In 2019, defensive backs were more likely to play press on the outside with a single high safety. In 2024, the pattern resembles a “red crab,” with linebackers or hybrid defensive backs positioned 4-6 yards off the line and two split safeties 10-15 yards deep. According to Next Gen Stats, the percentage of two-high safety looks on passing attempts has jumped from 44% in 2019 to 63% in 2024.
This defensive adjustment may explain other early trends in 2024. Average air yards per pass attempt have dropped to 7.7 yards, the lowest in over a decade and nearly a full yard fewer than in 2019. Deep pass attempts have decreased from 10.2 per game in 2019 to 7.7 per game in 2024. Defenses are evolving to counter the air attack, resulting in fewer passing yards, shorter throws, and fewer deep passes.
Key Coaching Changes and Their Impact
The 2025 offseason saw significant coaching changes across the league. Ben Johnson, formerly the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, took over as head coach of the Chicago Bears. Brian Schottenheimer, previously with the Dallas Cowboys, became the head coach in Dallas. Liam Coen, who had success with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense, is now leading the Jacksonville Jaguars. Pete Carroll, a veteran coach, is now at the helm of the Las Vegas Raiders. Mike Vrabel, after a stint as a personnel consultant with the Cleveland Browns, is now the head coach of the New England Patriots. Kellen Moore, formerly with the Los Angeles Chargers, is now the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, and Aaron Glenn, previously the defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, is now the head coach of the New York Jets.
These changes bring new offensive and defensive philosophies to their respective teams. For example, with the Cowboys hiring Brian Schottenheimer, the Cowboys offense flourished in 2023, with quarterback Dak Prescott posting 36 touchdowns, 4,566 passing yards and just 9 interceptions. The lack of success in 2024 can be attributed to injuries, with Prescott missing nine games after a hamstring injury. Schottenheimer will also call the offensive plays, which is a heavy lift for a first-time NFL head coach.
The Ever-Important Offensive Line
While scheme and play-calling are critical, the importance of a strong offensive line cannot be overstated. The Detroit Lions, for example, entered the 2024 season with one of the league’s top-ranked offensive lines. The Lions finished 2024 #3 in overall pressure rate, #7 against the blitz, and #3 in no-blitz pressure rate. The Lions’ offensive line paved the way for Jahmyr Gibbs, who was second in the league with 3.30 YBC/ATT this season and fifth in the final three weeks at 3.23.
Conversely, teams with struggling offensive lines often face significant challenges. The Arizona Cardinals, for instance, have exciting pass-catching options in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but their offensive line is a concern. As noted by CBS Sports, the Cardinals would need a lot to go right just to be an average offense.
The Impact of Rule Changes
The NFL consistently tweaks its rules to enhance player safety and improve the game’s flow. In 2024, the league debuted the new Dynamic Kickoff, designed to increase kickoff returns and decrease injury rates. The new format led to 332 more kickoff returns in 2024, increasing the kickoff return rate to 32.8%, up from 21.8%. There were also 59 big play returns, the most since 2016.
Another significant rule change was the removal of the hip-drop tackle, resulting in a 15-yard penalty and an automatic first down. These rule changes force teams to adjust their strategies and techniques, further contributing to the evolving nature of the game.
The Chess Match Continues
As the NFL continues to evolve, the strategic battles on the field will only intensify. The rise of adaptable play callers, the shift in defensive schemes, the importance of offensive line play, and the impact of rule changes all contribute to the complex chess match that is professional football.