From Potential to Production: How Ben Johnson’s Analytics Could Unlock Caleb Williams’ EPA Potential
The Chicago Bears faithful are hungry for a winner, and the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson has injected a palpable sense of optimism into the Windy City. Johnson, fresh off orchestrating a high-octane offense with the Detroit Lions, is now tasked with transforming Caleb Williams into the franchise quarterback the Bears have desperately sought for decades. But can Johnson’s analytical approach truly turn Williams into an EPA (Expected Points Added) machine?
The EPA Imperative: Johnson’s North Star
Johnson’s coaching philosophy is deeply rooted in analytics, particularly the concept of EPA. As Johnson himself stated at the NFL Owner’s Meetings, “From our analytics team, the EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now.” EPA measures the expected points a team gains (or loses) on a particular play, providing a data-driven assessment of offensive efficiency.
Johnson isn’t alone in valuing EPA. The metric has gained prominence across the league, with teams recognizing that consistently positive EPA in the passing game is a strong predictor of success. Johnson noted that “80 percent of the time, teams with better EPA in the passing game win.” This emphasis on EPA signifies a shift from traditional metrics like turnover margin, which former Bears coach Matt Eberflus emphasized.
Williams’ 2024 Season: A Foundation with Room to Grow
Caleb Williams’ rookie season in 2024 was a mixed bag. He showcased flashes of brilliance, throwing for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns. However, he also endured a league-high 68 sacks and struggled with consistency, leading to a negative EPA of -69.4, ranking him near the bottom of qualified quarterbacks.
Several factors contributed to Williams’ uneven performance. He faced constant pressure due to a porous offensive line, dealt with changes in play-calling, and lacked a consistent running game to alleviate pressure. Despite these challenges, Williams displayed the arm talent and playmaking ability that made him the No. 1 overall pick.
Johnson’s Plan: Schematic Tweaks and Fundamental Refinement
Johnson understands that unlocking Williams’ EPA potential requires a multifaceted approach. According to reports from the NFL Owner’s Meetings, Johnson intends to implement several key changes:
- Under Center Work: While Williams thrived in shotgun formations in college, Johnson wants him to become more comfortable operating under center. This will enhance the running game and create more opportunities for play-action passes, a staple of Johnson’s offensive schemes.
- Shoring Up the Offensive Line: Recognizing the importance of protecting Williams, Johnson will prioritize improving the offensive line. He values tape study over measurables when evaluating offensive linemen, suggesting a focus on technique and on-field performance. The Bears have already added three new interior offensive linemen this offseason, signaling their commitment to bolstering the front.
- Emphasis on Completion Percentage and YAC: Johnson believes that improving Williams’ completion percentage and generating more run-after-the-catch (YAC) opportunities are crucial for boosting passing EPA. This suggests a focus on shorter, higher-percentage throws that allow receivers like D.J. Moore, who ranked fifth in the NFL in YAC, to make plays after the catch.
The Goff Blueprint: A Model for Williams’ Development
Johnson’s success with Jared Goff in Detroit provides a potential blueprint for Williams’ development. Goff, once considered a struggling quarterback, thrived under Johnson’s tutelage, becoming one of the league’s most efficient passers. In 2024, Goff ranked among the league leaders in completion percentage, passing yards, and passer rating.
Johnson’s ability to tailor his offense to Goff’s strengths, while also challenging him to improve in key areas, was instrumental in Goff’s resurgence. A similar approach could unlock Williams’ full potential.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
While the arrival of Ben Johnson brings renewed hope to Chicago, challenges remain. Williams must improve his decision-making, reduce his time to throw, and develop a better understanding of NFL defenses. The offensive line needs to gel quickly, and the Bears must find a consistent running game to complement the passing attack.
However, the opportunities are immense. With Johnson’s guidance, Williams has the potential to become a true franchise quarterback. The Bears have surrounded him with talented weapons like D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. If Johnson can successfully implement his offensive system and Williams can continue to develop, the Bears’ offense could become one of the most explosive in the league.
The Bears’ decision to hire Ben Johnson reflects a commitment to modern offensive football and a belief in the power of analytics. Whether Johnson can transform Caleb Williams into an EPA machine remains to be seen, but the potential is there.