Buyer’s Remorse? Examining the Most Overpaid Players of the 2025 NFL Free Agency

The 2025 NFL free agency period has been a whirlwind of activity, with teams shelling out massive contracts in hopes of bolstering their rosters and making a Super Bowl run. As always, some teams have opened their checkbooks wider than others, leading to speculation about which players might be considered overpaid. While it’s impossible to definitively judge a contract’s value immediately, several deals have raised eyebrows and sparked debate among fans and analysts alike. With the salary cap increasing to between $277.5 and $281.5 million, teams had more financial flexibility than ever, but that doesn’t guarantee smart spending.

The Quarterback Conundrum: Sam Darnold’s Lucrative Deal

The Seattle Seahawks made headlines by signing quarterback Sam Darnold to a 3-year, $100.5 million contract. Darnold is coming off a career year with the Minnesota Vikings, where he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. However, concerns have been raised about whether Darnold can replicate that success in Seattle, especially after the Seahawks traded away DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, leaving Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his primary target.

Some analysts believe that Darnold benefited from a “perfect storm” in Minnesota, with an elite receiving corps and terrific play-calling. They question whether he’s truly a long-term upgrade over Geno Smith, whom the Seahawks traded away. Others point to Darnold’s undeniable raw talent and argue that he can be an above-average quarterback in the right system. Only time will tell if the Seahawks’ investment in Darnold will pay off, or if it will be viewed as a case of buyer’s remorse.

Offensive Line Overspending: Dan Moore Jr. and Will Fries

Offensive line play is crucial for any successful NFL team, and several teams addressed their needs in free agency by signing offensive linemen to lucrative contracts. However, some of these deals have been met with skepticism.

The Tennessee Titans signed offensive tackle Dan Moore Jr. to a 4-year, $82 million deal. Moore has been a durable player throughout his career, missing only two starts in four seasons. However, his performance has been inconsistent, and some analysts believe he’s better suited as a swing tackle or short-term starter. According to PFF, Moore had a 67.2 grade in 2024, ranking 46th among 141 qualified tackles. They also credited him with allowing 12 sacks and committing five penalties. The Titans are betting that Moore can improve and solidify their offensive line, but the high price tag raises concerns.

The Minnesota Vikings signed guard Will Fries to a 5-year, $88 million contract. Fries started all 17 games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2023 but was limited to just five games in 2024 due to injury. Despite his injury history, the Vikings are banking on Fries to bolster their offensive line. PFF graded him as the fourth-best guard in the NFL during his limited playing time in 2024, but some question whether he can stay healthy and perform at that level over the long term.

Defensive Deals Under the Microscope: Javon Kinlaw and Milton Williams

Defensive players are always in high demand in free agency, and several defensive linemen landed big contracts in 2025. However, some of these deals have been criticized as overpays.

The Washington Commanders signed defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw to a 3-year, $45 million contract. Kinlaw has shown flashes of potential as a pass rusher, generating 65 pressures and 8.0 sacks in the last two seasons. However, he has struggled with injuries throughout his career and has not been a consistent run defender. Some analysts believe that the Commanders overpaid for Kinlaw, especially considering that they released Jonathan Allen to create cap space.

The New England Patriots signed defensive tackle Milton Williams to a 4-year, $104 million contract. Williams had a strong season with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024, recording five sacks and making his presence felt in the Super Bowl. However, he has never played more than 50% of the defensive snaps in any of his four seasons. Some analysts question whether Williams can maintain his high level of play with increased playing time and whether he’s worth close to $26 million per year.

Other Notable Contracts: Odeyingbo, Banks, and Lawrence

Several other free-agent signings have also raised questions about whether teams overpaid for certain players.

Dayo Odeyingbo (EDGE, Chicago Bears): Odeyingbo received a 3-year, $48 million contract from the Bears. While he has shown improvement over his career, some wonder if he can live up to the contract’s expectations and become a top-25 edge rusher.
Aaron Banks (OG, Green Bay Packers): The Packers signed Banks to a 4-year, $77 million deal. Banks has been a solid player for the San Francisco 49ers, but some believe the Packers overpaid, making him the third-highest-paid left guard in the NFL.
DeMarcus Lawrence (DE, Seattle Seahawks): The Seahawks signed Lawrence to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Lawrence is a veteran pass rusher, but he’s turning 33 in April and played only four games in 2024 due to a foot injury. Some analysts believe the Seahawks were too generous in giving Lawrence such a lucrative deal.

The Risk of Buyer’s Remorse

NFL free agency is always a gamble. Teams are often forced to overpay to secure the players they want, and there’s no guarantee that those players will live up to their contracts. Injuries, declining performance, and poor scheme fits can all lead to buyer’s remorse.

As the 2025 season approaches, it will be interesting to see which of these potentially overpaid players will prove their worth and which ones will become cautionary tales. The pressure is on for these players to perform and justify the investments their teams have made in them.