Beyond the Gut: How NFL Coaches are Using Analytics to Master Fourth-Down Decisions

The roar of the crowd, the tension in the air, and the clock ticking down – these are the moments that define NFL games. And within these moments, perhaps no decision is more scrutinized than the choice a coach makes on fourth down. Forget the old-school “gut feeling”; a new era is dawning, one where data reigns supreme.

The Rise of the Machines (and the Analysts)

For decades, NFL coaches relied on instinct, experience, and maybe a little bit of luck when deciding whether to punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down. But the game is evolving. Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, under the guidance of former head coach Doug Pederson, have demonstrated the power of data-driven decision-making, even on their Super Bowl LII-winning season in 2017 [8, 15]. Today, analytics departments are essential, providing coaches with real-time insights that can swing the balance of a game.

Ryan Paganetti, who served as an analyst and game management coach with the Philadelphia Eagles, was the primary voice in head coach Doug Pederson’s ear as far as analytics were concerned [15]. Paganetti studied data for the Eagles to help better-inform the team’s game planning and in-game strategy.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Usually)

So, what kind of data are we talking about? It’s a complex mix, but here are some key elements:

Win Probability: This calculates the team’s chances of winning based on the current score, time remaining, field position, and down and distance.
Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA): These metrics evaluate the value of a play, showing how effective a team or player is in specific situations [15]. A three-yard gain on fourth-and-2 is far more valuable than a three-yard gain on fourth-and-7.
Conversion Rates: Historical data on how often teams convert on fourth down from various distances and field positions. NFL teams convert on fourth down 51 percent of the time when they go for it [5].

The Next Gen Stats Decision Guide powered by AWS, is a quantitative tool to evaluate fourth-down and two-point conversion decisions [3].

Case Studies in Courage (and Sometimes, Catastrophe)

While analytics are becoming more prevalent, some coaches have been more eager to embrace the change. Here are a few examples:

The Bold: Coaches like John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens have built a reputation for aggressive fourth-down decision-making, often trusting their offense to pick up short yardage in critical situations [11].
The Cautious: Other coaches remain more conservative, preferring to punt and play the field position game. This approach is often criticized by the analytics community, which argues that it leaves potential points on the table.
The Chargers Experiment: Brandon Staley, during his time with the Los Angeles Chargers, initially embraced analytics, leading the team to set a record for fourth-down conversions [10]. However, some high-profile failures led to questions about the application, highlighting the importance of context and execution.

Trends in Fourth-Down Decision-Making

Several trends have emerged as analytics have gained influence:

Going for it More Often: Teams are going for it on fourth down more frequently than in the past, especially in situations where the numbers favor it [4].
Shorter Distances: Teams are more likely to go for it on fourth-and-short, where the probability of conversion is higher [5]. A plurality of attempts have been from within a yard, which has a whopping success rate of 65.4 percent [5].
Late-Game Aggression: Teams trailing late in games are more inclined to go for it on fourth down to try and close the gap [9].

The Human Element

While analytics provide valuable insights, they are not a crystal ball. Coaches must still consider factors such as:

Player Health: Is your star quarterback nursing an injury? That might affect your decision to go for it.
Momentum: Sometimes, a successful fourth-down conversion can provide a huge emotional boost to the team.
Opponent’s Strengths and Weaknesses: Are you facing a stout defense that’s difficult to move the ball against? Going for it might be a riskier proposition.

The Future of Fourth Downs

As analytics continue to evolve, we can expect even more sophisticated models that take into account a wider range of variables. Coaches will need to become increasingly adept at interpreting data and using it to make informed decisions. The Cleveland Browns made the most fourth-down conversions between the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with 24 conversions [14].

The old-school “gut feeling” will always have a place in football, but the future belongs to those who can combine instinct with insight, mastering the art of fourth-down decision-making in the age of analytics.