Beyond Completion Percentage: Advanced Metrics for Evaluating NFL QB Accuracy in 2025

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and pinpointing the signal-callers who can consistently deliver accurate passes is paramount for success. While completion percentage has long been a staple for evaluating QB performance, it only scratches the surface. In 2025, a deeper dive into advanced metrics provides a more nuanced understanding of quarterback accuracy and its impact on team performance.

The Limitations of Completion Percentage

Completion percentage, calculated by dividing completed passes by attempted passes, offers a basic snapshot of a quarterback’s accuracy. However, this metric doesn’t account for several critical factors:

Depth of Target: A quarterback who excels at short, high-percentage throws will naturally have a higher completion percentage than one who frequently attempts more challenging downfield passes.
Defensive Pressure: Completion percentage doesn’t reflect the difficulty of throws made under duress. A quarterback who maintains a respectable completion percentage while facing constant pressure demonstrates a higher level of accuracy than one who operates primarily from a clean pocket.
Receiver Separation: A quarterback’s completion percentage can be heavily influenced by the ability of their receivers to create separation from defenders. A well-thrown ball can still fall incomplete if the receiver is tightly covered.
Dropped Passes: Completion percentage penalizes quarterbacks for drops by their receivers, even if the pass was perfectly placed.

Introducing Advanced Accuracy Metrics

To overcome the limitations of completion percentage, NFL analysts and teams are increasingly relying on advanced metrics that provide a more comprehensive evaluation of quarterback accuracy. Some of the most valuable of these metrics include:

On-Target Percentage

On-Target Percentage measures the percentage of a quarterback’s throws that are deemed “on-target,” meaning the ball is placed in a location where the receiver can catch it without significantly adjusting their route or body position. This metric is often broken down by depth of target (short, intermediate, deep) to provide a more granular view of a quarterback’s accuracy across the field. According to a Sports Info Solutions study, a quarterback’s intermediate on-target percentage (11-20 yards) has the strongest correlation to overall NFL success. In the 2025 draft class, Jaxson Dart led the class with a 74% intermediate accuracy and a 180.7 rating, which only dipped 10% from his short-range proficiency with the Rebels.

Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)

Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) compares a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to the completion percentage that would be expected based on the difficulty of their throws. This metric takes into account factors such as distance to the receiver, receiver separation, and defensive pressure to provide a more accurate assessment of a quarterback’s ability to complete passes.

Accuracy Plus Rate

Accuracy Plus Rate measures a quarterback’s accuracy on throws, factoring in not just whether the pass was completed, but also the quality of the throw. It considers whether the pass was thrown into tight coverage, required the receiver to make a difficult catch, or was perfectly placed for maximum yardage after the catch.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) Accuracy Grades

Pro Football Focus (PFF) assigns grades to quarterbacks based on their accuracy, taking into account a variety of factors such as ball placement, timing, and decision-making. PFF’s accuracy grades provide a comprehensive evaluation of a quarterback’s ability to consistently deliver accurate passes.

2025 Accuracy Standouts

Several quarterbacks have distinguished themselves as accuracy leaders in the 2025 season based on these advanced metrics:

Sam Darnold: After a stellar 2024 season with the Vikings, Darnold signed with the Seattle Seahawks. Darnold was also the only quarterback to complete more than half of his passes of that length among those with at least 10 attempts.
Joe Burrow: Despite battling injuries, Burrow’s accuracy remains elite. Burrow’s 93.5 passing grade and 95.2 overall grade over the past three seasons lead all quarterbacks, and his 51.3% success rate over that span ties Josh Allen for second-best in the league.
Patrick Mahomes: While Mahomes’ traditional stats dipped slightly in 2024, his underlying accuracy remains exceptional. Mahomes is coming off career lows in YPA (6.8) and passing yards (3928), with his aDOT sitting at 6.7 yards or shorter for the third straight season.
Josh Allen: Allen’s aggressive style doesn’t always translate to a high completion percentage, but his ability to make pinpoint throws under pressure is undeniable. Allen’s 95.4 overall grade over the past three seasons ranks first among all quarterbacks.
Shedeur Sanders: Sanders’ ability to play with timing and tempo from the pocket allows him to attack the short passing game with incredible accuracy. On throws targeted nine or fewer yards downfield, the Colorado signal-caller produced a 92.9% adjusted completion rate – one of just five qualifying passers in the Power Four to surpass the 90% threshold – to go along with most touchdowns (16) in the FBS.

The Impact of Accuracy on Team Success

Accurate quarterback play is a cornerstone of successful NFL offenses. Quarterbacks who consistently deliver accurate passes are more likely to:

Sustain Drives: Accurate passes lead to higher completion rates, which in turn help offenses sustain drives and control the clock.
Convert on Third Down: Accurate throws are crucial for converting on third down, extending drives and keeping the offense on the field.
Score Touchdowns: Accurate passes in the red zone are essential for scoring touchdowns, maximizing scoring opportunities.
Minimize Turnovers: Accurate quarterbacks are less likely to throw interceptions or make errant throws that lead to turnovers, protecting their team’s scoring chances.

Conclusion

While completion percentage remains a useful metric for evaluating NFL quarterbacks, it’s essential to look beyond this basic statistic to gain a deeper understanding of accuracy. Advanced metrics such as on-target percentage, CPOE, and PFF accuracy grades provide a more nuanced and comprehensive evaluation of a quarterback’s ability to consistently deliver accurate passes, especially intermediate throws, which translates to greater success. By embracing these advanced metrics, NFL teams and fans alike can gain a more informed perspective on quarterback performance and its impact on team success.