2025 NFL Win Projections: An In-Depth Statistical Look at Each Team’s Chances
The air is thick with anticipation as the 2025 NFL season approaches. Fresh off the Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl LIX victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, every team is hungry to dethrone the reigning champions. With the schedule released and offseason moves finalized, it’s time to dive into the crystal ball and analyze the 2025 NFL win projections, offering an in-depth statistical look at each team’s chances.
AFC East: Bills Aim for Continued Dominance
The Buffalo Bills, led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, are once again the favorites in the AFC East. Sportsbooks project them to win 11.5 games, with some even juicing the over at -140. Their schedule is the fifth-easiest in the league, based on opponents’ 2024 winning percentages, giving them a clear path to another double-digit win season. Key home games against the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles will test their resolve, but analysts like Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton predict another 13-4 finish. The Bills have won 11 or more games in each of the last five seasons under head coach Sean McDermott, who boasts an impressive 8-0 record after bye weeks.
However, the division is not without its challengers. The New York Jets, now led by coach Aaron Glenn and quarterback Justin Fields, are looking to rebound from a tumultuous 2024 season. The Miami Dolphins, despite a weaker schedule projection, still possess the firepower to compete, while the New England Patriots, under coach Mike Vrabel, are steadily improving after a busy offseason.
AFC North: Ravens and Bengals Battle for Supremacy
The AFC North promises to be a tightly contested division, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals leading the charge. Both teams are projected to win over 10 games, setting the stage for a fierce battle for the division crown.
The Ravens, winners of the past two division titles, are a sensible pick to win one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is in his prime, and the team has bolstered its defense with key additions. However, they face a challenging schedule, including the entire NFC North and tough matchups against the Chiefs, Rams, and Texans.
The Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow and star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, are poised to challenge the Ravens. Their improved defense could be the key to pushing them over the top. A pivotal Thanksgiving game against the Ravens will be a crucial test.
AFC South: Texans Look to Maintain Their Edge
The Houston Texans have emerged as the team to beat in the AFC South, winning the division in each of the last two seasons. Quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. lead a talented roster that is poised for continued success.
However, the division is on the rise. The Jacksonville Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach and traded up for Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. The Indianapolis Colts bolstered their secondary with the signings of safety Camryn Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward. The Tennessee Titans selected quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall pick.
The Texans have a favorable schedule, but face tough matchups against the Rams, Buccaneers, Ravens and Bills. If they can navigate those challenges, they should cruise to a third straight division title.
AFC West: Chiefs Aim for a Decade of Dominance
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to reign supreme in the AFC West, having won nine straight division titles. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid have built a dynasty that shows no signs of slowing down.
However, the division is improving. Jim Harbaugh has taken over the Los Angeles Chargers, and Sean Payton is getting the Denver Broncos back on track. The Las Vegas Raiders lured Pete Carroll into the division, adding another Super Bowl-winning coach to the mix.
The Chiefs face a challenging schedule, including a Week 1 game against the Chargers in Brazil. However, their experience and talent should be enough to overcome any obstacles.
NFC East: Eagles Soar After Super Bowl Triumph
The Philadelphia Eagles are the class of the NFC East, fresh off their Super Bowl LIX victory. Quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley, and a stout offensive line lead a team that is built to contend for years to come.
However, the division is not without its challengers. The Washington Commanders reached the NFC Championship Game in 2024, and the Dallas Cowboys, with Dak Prescott and George Pickens, are always a threat.
The Eagles face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league, with five prime-time games and a rematch against the Chiefs in Week 2. However, their talent and experience should be enough to secure another division title.
NFC North: Lions Lead a Competitive Pack
The NFC North is arguably the toughest division in the league, with the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings all vying for the top spot.
The Lions, led by their explosive offense and battle-tested roster, are the favorites to win the division. However, they face the toughest schedule in the league, according to some models.
The Packers, with a healthy Jordan Love and prized rookie Matthew Golden, are poised to contend for a Super Bowl. The Vikings, with Kirk Cousins and a talented receiving corps, are always a threat.
NFC South: Buccaneers Look to Continue Their Reign
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dominated the NFC South in recent years, winning four straight division titles. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and a talented defense lead a team that is built to win now.
However, the division is wide open. The Carolina Panthers, with a new quarterback and coaching staff, are looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season. The Atlanta Falcons, with a new quarterback and a talented offense, are poised to make a run.
The Buccaneers have a favorable schedule, but face tough matchups against the Chiefs, Rams, and Texans. If they can navigate those challenges, they should cruise to a fifth straight division title.
NFC West: Rams and 49ers Battle for Supremacy
The NFC West promises to be a competitive division, with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers leading the charge.
The Rams, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay, are always a threat. They were on the verge of the NFC Championship Game last season, and are poised to make another run in 2025.
The 49ers, with a healthy roster and a revamped defense, are also a Super Bowl contender. Quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, and defensive end Nick Bosa lead a talented team that is built to win now.
Final Thoughts
Predicting NFL win totals is a challenging task, but by analyzing team strengths, schedules, and offseason moves, we can gain valuable insights into each team’s chances. The 2025 season promises to be full of surprises, and it will be fascinating to see which teams rise to the top.