2025 NFL Draft: Why History Suggests This Year’s Quarterback Class Could Be a Bust

The NFL Draft is a high-stakes gamble, and no position carries more risk and reward than quarterback. While the allure of finding the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is strong, history paints a sobering picture: many highly touted quarterback prospects fail to live up to expectations. As we approach the 2025 NFL Draft, where the quarterback class is drawing comparisons to the underwhelming group of 2022, it’s worth examining why history suggests this year’s signal-callers might struggle to break the mold.

The Quarterback Carousel: A History of Misses

For every Tom Brady (a sixth-round pick!) there are countless Ryan Leafs and JaMarcus Russells – quarterbacks who entered the league with immense hype but quickly flamed out. ESPN’s Adam Schefter shared data compiled by ESPN producer Paul Hembekides that looked at first-round picks at every position between 2000-19 to determine a success rate — or hit rate — at each position. According to the research, first-round quarterbacks hit at a rate of 46 percent, with 26 being hits and 30 being misses. This “bust rate” isn’t just a matter of failing to reach Hall of Fame status; it often means failing to become a reliable starter.

Since 2011, 38 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory: Patrick Mahomes. Of the 28 quarterbacks no longer on their rookie deal, the average duration they were the primary starter for the team that drafted them was 3.4 years. That’s it. All that draft capital was spent to get 3.4 years on average, of what most typically was poor performance.

The “Weak Class” Factor

The 2025 quarterback class is widely considered weaker than recent years, particularly the star-studded 2024 group that saw six quarterbacks drafted in the top 12 picks. Several analysts have drawn parallels between this year’s crop and the 2022 class, which was headlined by Kenny Pickett. As of April 2025, Pickett is already on his third team, and Brock Purdy is the only quarterback from the class still with his draft team.

According to CBS Sports, there are only four quarterbacks ranked in the top 100 of their overall draft rankings this year, including two in the top 40. It certainly will be nothing like 2024 when an NFL-record six quarterbacks were taken within the top 12 picks.

The Quarterbacks of 2025

Cam Ward (Miami): Ward is the consensus top quarterback in the class, with some scouts drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams due to his playmaking ability and arm talent. However, concerns exist about his consistency and tendency to play “off-schedule.” One AFC quarterbacks coach stated, “Cam is the most talented. But he scares me a lot. He’s got a long ways to go before he’s refined as a passer, and I see a lot of misses, especially outside the numbers.”
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): The son of Hall of Famer Deion Sanders, Shedeur is praised for his accuracy and football IQ. However, some scouts question his arm strength and ability to make plays under pressure. One scout noted that “Sanders possesses a baseline of poise, savvy and accuracy, traits that are integral in becoming an NFL starter. He’s slow-twitch with standard arm talent and a longer release, but he worked around those limitations with anticipation and accuracy.”
Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss): Dart is considered a dual-threat quarterback with a strong arm, but some evaluators have concerns about his decision-making and ability to read defenses. One NFC coordinator said, “I was struggling with Dart big-time; I think he’s probably a backup. I had a hard time seeing him as a guy you can build around. His arm is O.K.; he has just enough athleticism.”
Jalen Milroe (Alabama): Milroe is viewed as a physically gifted player with a rare combination of traits and playmaking ability. However, he remains raw as a passer. NFL.com says “Milroe is the most physically gifted quarterback in the 2025 draft class, but he is still far too inconsistent in when and how he delivers the football. In a perfect world, he would be drafted with a plan to let him sit and develop.”

The Perils of Overdrafting

The desperation for a franchise quarterback often leads teams to overdraft players, reaching for potential over proven talent. This is especially true in years where the quarterback class is perceived as weak. The result can be disastrous, setting a franchise back for years.

What Makes a Quarterback a “Bust”?

Defining a “bust” is subjective, but several factors contribute to the label:

Failure to secure a long-term starting role: If a quarterback drafted in the first round can’t hold down a starting job for at least a few seasons, it’s generally considered a disappointment.
Poor performance: Consistently low passer ratings, high interception rates, and an inability to lead the team to victories are hallmarks of a quarterback who isn’t living up to expectations.
Inability to develop: Some quarterbacks enter the league as raw prospects, but if they fail to improve their skills and decision-making over time, they’re unlikely to succeed.

The Importance of Context

It’s important to remember that a quarterback’s success isn’t solely determined by his own abilities. The team around him, the coaching staff, and the overall organizational stability all play a significant role. A talented quarterback can be set up for failure if he’s surrounded by a weak offensive line, a poor receiving corps, or a dysfunctional coaching staff.

Conclusion

While there’s always a chance that one or more quarterbacks from the 2025 NFL Draft will defy the odds and become stars, history suggests caution. The combination of a perceived weak class and the inherent risk associated with drafting quarterbacks makes this year’s crop a potential minefield for NFL teams. Only time will tell if these quarterbacks can overcome the historical trends and carve out successful careers.