2025 NFL Draft Quarterbacks: A Statistical Deep Dive Comparing Top Prospects
The 2024 NFL season saw some incredible quarterback performances, setting the stage for what promises to be an intriguing 2025 NFL Draft. As teams gear up to scout and evaluate the next generation of signal-callers, a statistical deep dive into the top quarterback prospects becomes essential. With the Tennessee Titans ranking dead last in PFF passing grade in 2024 (57.0), the pressure is on for teams to find their franchise quarterback. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive comparison of the leading candidates, highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and potential fits in the NFL.
The Headliners: Ward, Sanders, and Dart
The quarterback class of 2025 is headlined by three names: Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart. These quarterbacks have consistently been ranked among the top prospects, with each bringing a unique skill set to the table.
Cam Ward, Miami (FL): Ward’s journey to the top of the draft boards has been nothing short of remarkable. After transferring to Miami, Ward threw a school-record and FBS-leading 39 touchdowns in his lone season. Ward earned an FBS-best 92.9 PFF grade last season. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com describes him as a “gunslinger with good size, a big arm, and the mobility to help out his offensive line.” Ward’s arm strength allows him to make throws into tight windows at all three levels of the field. However, some scouts have concerns about his fundamentals, with one AFC quarterbacks coach drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams, noting his playmaking ability and arm talent but also pointing out potential refinement needed.
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: Sanders brings a different dynamic to the quarterback position. In 2024, Sanders completed 74 percent of his passes for 4,134 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. While some scouts are very high on Sanders, others are more reserved. Concerns have been raised about Sanders’ size (6-1 1/2, 212 pounds) and athletic profile. Some view him as a system quarterback, noting that a significant portion of his passes at Colorado were screens. Despite these concerns, Sanders’ toughness and ability to perform under pressure are undeniable assets.
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: Dart is a developmental quarterback who possesses leadership qualities and dual-threat capabilities. Despite some offensive issues at Ole Miss, Dart was the highest-graded passer in the 2025 draft class and showed strong downfield accuracy. An NFC GM noted that Dart would have been in the conversation with Penix and J.J. McCarthy as the fourth or fifth quarterback in last year’s draft, based on his arm and overall talent level. Dart’s accuracy on intermediate throws stands out, with a 74% on-target percentage.
Statistical Breakdowns: Accuracy, Pressure, and Mobility
A thorough statistical analysis reveals key differences in the playing styles of these top prospects.
Accuracy: Chris Lee’s projections on accuracy from college to the pros highlight Dart’s strength on intermediate throws, with a 74% on-target percentage, followed by Sanders at 69% and Ward at 67%. On deep throws, Sanders edges out Dart and Ward with 55%, 51% and 46% respectively. Ward’s deep ball accuracy being worse than 50% is at the low end of the spectrum.
Performance Under Pressure: Sanders leads the pack in IQR when pressured, but Ward boasts a 73% on-target percentage under pressure. Dart’s on-target percentage drops to 61% when pressured, placing him in the 63rd percentile among FBS quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts under pressure.
Mobility: All three quarterbacks have demonstrated the ability to make plays on the move. Scouts have noted Dart’s accuracy when throwing to the back shoulder along the sideline, Ward’s ability to make good throws across his body, and Sanders’ phenomenal ability to extend plays.
The Next Tier: Milroe, Howard, and Others
Beyond the top three, several other quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft possess intriguing potential.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama: Milroe is the most physically gifted quarterback in the 2025 draft class, but he is still far too inconsistent in when and how he delivers the football. Milroe is an explosive athlete who is very capable outside the pocket, but he lacks accuracy, touch and decision-making when he’s inside the pocket. Milroe’s rare combination of traits and playmaking ability has drawn favorable comparisons to some of the NFL’s most dynamic talents.
Will Howard, Ohio State: Howard checks a lot of boxes: experience, size and a willingness to attack all coverages. He doesn’t bring special arm talent, but he could develop into an NFL starter. Howard will have to prove that his outstanding season wasn’t just a fluke aided by elite players around him.
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame: Leonard is a tough, dual-threat quarterback with plus value as a runner, but his passing efficiency numbers reveal too many inconsistencies on a throw-by-throw basis for him to be an NFL starter. Leonard will need to improve his throw-to-throw consistency to develop into an NFL starter, but he does provide value as a dual threat and earned a 91.6 deep PFF passing grade in 2024.
Scheme Fit and NFL Potential
Ultimately, the success of these quarterbacks in the NFL will depend on their fit within a specific offensive scheme. Dart would be a good fit for a quick pass RPO scheme. Ward is your guy if you want a more mobile playmaker. Sanders is someone who can avoid pressure and throw on the move.
Cam Ward: Ward’s playmaking ability and arm talent make him an ideal fit for teams looking for a dynamic quarterback who can make plays both inside and outside the pocket.
Shedeur Sanders: Sanders’ accuracy on the move and ability to avoid pressure make him a good fit for teams that prioritize a quarterback who can extend plays and make throws under duress.
Jaxson Dart: Dart’s accuracy on intermediate throws and ability to throw to the back shoulder along the sideline make him a good fit for teams that value a quarterback who can make precise throws in critical situations.
Conclusion
The 2025 NFL Draft quarterback class presents a diverse range of talent, with each prospect offering a unique blend of skills and potential. While Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart headline the class, quarterbacks like Jalen Milroe, Will Howard, and Riley Leonard could emerge as valuable assets for teams willing to invest in their development. As the draft approaches, teams will carefully weigh the statistical data, scouting reports, and scheme fits to determine which quarterback is the right fit for their franchise.