2025 NFL Coaching Carousel: Quantifying the Impact on Team Performance and Fantasy Football

2025 NFL Coaching Carousel: Quantifying the Impact on Team Performance and Fantasy Football

The NFL is a league of constant change, and the 2025 NFL Coaching Carousel has been no exception. With several high-profile moves shaking up team dynamics, it’s crucial to analyze how these changes will impact both team performance and the ever-important world of fantasy football. Last season, the Buffalo Bills ranked 13th in offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a testament to the impact coaching can have. This year’s carousel promises even more significant shifts in strategy and player utilization.

The New Faces in New Places

Several teams have ushered in new eras with significant coaching hires. Here’s a breakdown of some key changes and their potential impact:

  • Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson

    The Bears landed one of the hottest names in the coaching world, hiring former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their new head coach. Johnson’s arrival in Chicago is arguably the most impactful move of the carousel. During his time in Detroit, the Lions consistently boasted a top-five offense, averaging 26.6, 27.4, and 33.1 points per game over three seasons. In 2024, the Lions averaged 2.5 more points per game than the next closest team, the Buffalo Bills. Johnson’s offensive prowess is expected to revitalize the Bears’ offense and unlock the full potential of quarterback Caleb Williams. The Bears also added Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator. Doyle previously served as the Broncos’ tight end coach. Johnson’s success also hinges on Dennis Allen, former New Orleans Saints head coach, who will guide Chicago’s defense.

    • Fantasy Impact: Caleb Williams is the most obvious beneficiary. Johnson’s track record of developing quarterbacks suggests Williams could be in for a breakout season. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze should also see an increase in production.

  • Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer

    The Cowboys promoted Brian Schottenheimer to head coach after two seasons as their offensive coordinator. While the Cowboys’ offense flourished in 2023, they struggled in 2024, partly due to Dak Prescott’s injury. Schottenheimer will also be calling the offensive plays, which is a heavy lift for a first-time NFL head coach.

    • Fantasy Impact: The Cowboys’ offensive stars, including Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Tony Pollard, remain valuable fantasy assets. However, the change in leadership introduces some uncertainty.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen

    The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as their new head coach. Coen, known for his offensive mind, will look to develop the Jaguars’ young talent, particularly quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

    • Fantasy Impact: Trevor Lawrence is the primary beneficiary. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby could also see an increase in value if Coen implements a more effective running game.

  • Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll

    The Raiders made a surprising move by hiring veteran head coach Pete Carroll. Carroll, who will be 74 years old, brings a wealth of experience and a Super Bowl title to Las Vegas.

    • Fantasy Impact: The Raiders’ offensive players could see a boost in production under Carroll.

  • New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel

    The Patriots hired Mike Vrabel as their new head coach. Vrabel, known for his leadership and defensive expertise, is expected to bring stability to the Patriots. The Patriots also hired Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator.

    • Fantasy Impact: The Patriots’ offensive players are difficult to predict.

  • New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore

    The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new head coach. Moore, known for his offensive mind, is expected to revitalize the Saints’ offense.

    • Fantasy Impact: The Saints’ offensive players, including Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, could see a boost in production under Moore.

  • New York Jets: Aaron Glenn

    The Jets hired Aaron Glenn as their new head coach. Glenn, a former Jets player and defensive coordinator, is expected to bring a strong defensive identity to the team. The Jets also hired Darren Mougey as their next general manager.

    • Fantasy Impact: The Jets’ defensive players could see an increase in value under Glenn.

Quantifying the Impact: A Data-Driven Approach

While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, we can use historical data to quantify the potential impact of coaching changes. A study by Action Network found that teams that fire their coach midseason tend to perform better against the spread (ATS) in their remaining games. This suggests that a new coach can provide a spark and implement changes that lead to improved performance.

Furthermore, the fantasy football implications of coaching changes are significant. New offensive schemes and play-calling tendencies can dramatically alter player usage and production. For example, a coach who favors a pass-heavy offense could elevate the value of wide receivers and quarterbacks, while a coach who emphasizes the running game could boost the value of running backs.

Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

Based on the coaching changes, here are a few potential fantasy football sleepers and busts for the 2025 season:

  • Sleepers:

    • Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears): Under Ben Johnson’s tutelage, Williams has the potential to become a fantasy superstar.
    • Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars): Liam Coen’s arrival could unlock Lawrence’s full potential.
    • Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints): Kellen Moore’s offensive system could revitalize Kamara’s fantasy value.

  • Busts:

    • Cowboys Offensive Stars: The change in leadership introduces uncertainty.

The Ripple Effect: Positional Battles and Draft Strategy

The coaching carousel also has a ripple effect on positional battles and draft strategy. New coaches often bring in their own players, creating competition for roster spots and playing time. This can lead to unexpected breakouts and disappointments.

Conclusion

The 2025 NFL Coaching Carousel has set the stage for a season of significant change and intrigue. By analyzing the new hires, understanding their coaching philosophies, and quantifying the potential impact on team performance and fantasy football, fans can gain a competitive edge and make informed decisions.