Smart Money: NFL Preseason Betting Strategies and Week 1 Picks for 2025

The air is crisp, the smell of freshly cut grass fills the stadium, and the roar of the crowd is back – it’s NFL preseason time! While the games may not count in the standings, they offer a unique opportunity for savvy bettors to get a head start on the season. Preseason is where fortunes can be made by those who understand the nuances of evaluating teams and predicting outcomes when starters see limited action. As we gear up for the 2025 season, let’s dive into some smart money strategies for NFL preseason betting and identify potential Week 1 picks.

Preseason Betting: It’s a Different Game

Preseason betting isn’t about predicting which Super Bowl contender will dominate. It’s about understanding team philosophies, coaching tendencies, and the value of evaluating players further down the depth chart. Unlike the regular season, where star power often dictates outcomes, the preseason is a proving ground where unproven players battle for roster spots and playing time.

Key Factors for Preseason Success

1. Coaching Tendencies: Some coaches, like the Patriots’ Mike Vrabel, take the preseason very seriously, using it as an opportunity to instill discipline and evaluate talent. Others, like the Rams’ Sean McVay, prefer to keep their starters under wraps, focusing on player development and avoiding unnecessary injuries. Knowing a coach’s approach is crucial. Sean Payton is 33-33 SU and 33-33 ATS in the preseason as a head coach, while Kyle Shanahan is 12-11-1 SU and 13-10-1 ATS in the preseason as a head coach.

2. Quarterback Depth: Quarterback play is always important, but in the preseason, it’s magnified. Teams with experienced backup quarterbacks or promising rookies often have an advantage. As Sean Koerner, Director of Predictive Analytics at Action Network, notes, it comes down to which unit of a team’s offense the quarterback is playing with and against. Scrambling quarterbacks can also be valuable, as they can compensate for weaker offensive line play. For example, while Mac Jones or Zach Wilson may not be regular-season starters, they can perform well against backup defenses.

3. Information is King: Staying up-to-date on NFL news is essential. Keep an eye on reports about which starters will play, who’s battling for roster spots, and any injuries that may impact playing time. This information can give you a significant edge over the casual bettor.

4. Joint Practices: Keep an eye on teams that are having joint practices. Terrell Furman Jr. noted that fading teams in joint practices can be a very big angle. The joint practices are the game, and that is what everybody’s focusing on.

5. The Underdog Factor: Road underdogs, especially those getting +2.5 points or fewer, have historically been a profitable play in the preseason, covering in 66% of games over the past decade.

Week 1 Preseason Picks: Spotting the Value

With the above strategies in mind, let’s look at some potential Week 1 picks for the 2025 NFL preseason:

Jacksonville Jaguars First-Half Spread (-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Jaguars have a new coaching staff led by Liam Coen, and they’re expected to play several starters, including Trevor Lawrence and rookie Travis Hunter. The Steelers, on the other hand, aren’t playing their first-stringers, including Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and T.J. Watt.
Minnesota Vikings First-Half Spread (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans: The Vikings will have a new starting quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, and coach Kevin O’Connell has stated that he will play a few series. The Texans, meanwhile, are expected to sit several starters.
Tennessee Titans First-Half Spread (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Titans will give Cam Ward, this year’s No. 1 overall pick, some playing time, while the Buccaneers’ starters are unlikely to play due to injuries to key players.
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 First Half vs. Baltimore Ravens: Anthony Richardson is confirmed to play the full first half for the Colts, giving them a major edge. The Ravens, once dominant in the preseason under John Harbaugh, have shifted their approach.
Eagles +6 vs. Bengals: Even if Joe Burrow takes a couple of snaps, the drop-off afterward is steep. Philadelphia has legitimate depth throughout the roster, especially at quarterback.

Betting Trends to Consider

Totals: Point totals in NFL preseason games are typically much lower than during the regular season. In 2024, the average total in preseason games was just 34.9, while the total in regular season games was 45.8. The Under went 31-18 in NFL preseason action in 2024.
Jets and Jaguars: The New York Jets have gone 11-2-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their past 14 preseason contests. The Jacksonville Jaguars open their schedule riding a league-best six-game SU and ATS win streak in preseason play.

Smart Money Moves

Fade the Public: As VSiN has tracked, majority bettors at DraftKings are often unsuccessful. Fading the public can be a worthwhile strategy.
Shop for the Best Lines: Use a betting pros app to shop for the best lines.
Don’t Be Afraid to Steam Chase: If you see a line moving significantly due to news or information, don’t hesitate to jump on it, even if it’s already moved a point or more.

Week 1 Games to Watch

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: The regular season will kick off with the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are dealing with contract drama with Micah Parsons.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The game will be played in Brazil and streamed exclusively on YouTube.
New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders: The Patriots’ new offensive linemen and rising stars will be tested, while Sam Hartman takes the reins for Washington.

Conclusion

NFL preseason betting requires a different approach than the regular season. By understanding coaching tendencies, evaluating quarterback depth, staying informed, and considering key betting trends, you can position yourself to make smart money moves and gain an edge as we head into the 2025 NFL season.