Rookie Risers and Fallers: A Statistical Analysis of Preseason Performances and Their 2025 Impact
The NFL preseason has concluded, and as teams finalize their 53-man rosters, it’s time to dissect the performances of this year’s rookie class. While preseason statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, they offer valuable insights into which rookies are poised to make an immediate impact and those who may need more time to develop. With the 2025 season fast approaching, let’s delve into a data-driven analysis of the rookie risers and fallers, examining their preseason performances and projecting their potential impact on their respective teams.
Quarterback Carousel: Dart Ascends, Shough Stumbles
The quarterback position is always under scrutiny, and this year’s rookie class is no exception. Jaxson Dart of the New York Giants has emerged as a clear riser. Dart finished the preseason with a stellar 113.1 quarterback rating, showcasing his ability to lead the offense effectively. In 12 series, Dart passed for 372 yards and three touchdowns, adding another score and 52 rushing yards on the ground. According to PFF, Dart’s 84.7 overall grade and 88.5 passing grade were the highest among rookie quarterbacks in August. His performance has fueled speculation that he could challenge veteran Russell Wilson for the starting job sooner rather than later.
On the other hand, Saints quarterback Spencer Shough’s preseason performance has been underwhelming. While he still has potential, Shough’s struggles with injuries in college have resurfaced, hindering his ability to establish a rhythm.
Running Back Revelations: Jeanty and Gordon Surge, Henderson Faces Hurdles
The running back landscape is rife with intriguing rookies. Ashton Jeanty of the Las Vegas Raiders has lived up to the hype, impressing coaches and teammates with his work ethic and playmaking ability. Despite a slow start in the first preseason game, Jeanty bounced back with a strong performance against the 49ers, rushing for 35 yards and a touchdown on 14 snaps. New head coach Pete Carroll is expected to heavily utilize Jeanty, potentially leading to a significant role in the Raiders’ offense.
Ollie Gordon II of the Miami Dolphins is another notable riser. Gordon finished the preseason with 126 rushing yards, averaging close to five yards per carry. His performance has positioned him as a potential handcuff to De’Von Achane, especially with Jaylen Wright dealing with a leg injury. Gordon’s impressive preseason has significantly boosted his stock.
TreVeyon Henderson of the New England Patriots faces a more uncertain path. While Henderson has flashed explosiveness in training camp, his history of injuries at Ohio State raises concerns about his durability. If Henderson can stay healthy, he has the potential to become a key playmaker for the Patriots. However, another injury could derail his progress and limit his impact.
Wide Receiver Wonders: Meeks Shines, Ayomanor Impresses
The wide receiver position boasts several rookies who have turned heads during the preseason. Jackson Meeks of the Detroit Lions has been a standout performer, showcasing his receiving skills and earning a high PFF grade of 85.8. Meeks has impressed with his ability to catch nearly every target, averaging 16.0 yards per reception and 2.79 yards per route run.
Elic Ayomanor of the Tennessee Titans has also generated buzz with his preseason performances. Despite being a fourth-round pick, Ayomanor has impressed with his size and athleticism, drawing comparisons to established receivers. In two preseason games, Ayomanor had five receptions for 72 yards, demonstrating his potential to contribute to the Titans’ passing game.
Tight End Treasures: Warren’s Stock Soars, Loveland Adapts
Tyler Warren of the Indianapolis Colts has emerged as a top tight end prospect. Warren’s preseason performance has solidified his status as a potential focal point of the Colts’ offense. With Josh Downs dealing with an injury and Michael Pittman struggling to connect with the quarterbacks, Warren has an opportunity to make an immediate impact.
Colston Loveland of the Chicago Bears has also shown promise, adapting quickly to the complexities of the tight end position. Despite the challenges that rookie tight ends often face, Loveland has looked comfortable in training camp, consistently getting open and demonstrating his blocking ability.
Defensive Dynamos: Burch and Grant Rise, Roberts Falls
On the defensive side of the ball, several rookies have made their presence felt. Jordan Burch of the Arizona Cardinals has been a standout performer, earning praise from coaches for his disruptive play. Burch finished the preseason as the highest-graded defender, showcasing his pass-rushing skills and earning a spot in the Cardinals’ rotation.
Kenneth Grant of the Miami Dolphins has also impressed with his physicality and work ethic. Grant has drawn high praise from coaches and has flashed his potential during preseason games, logging three quarterback pressures and six tackles in the run game.
Elandon Roberts of the Las Vegas Raiders has seen his stock fall. After being projected to wear the green dot, Devin White has taken over, leaving Roberts in a diminished role.
Final Thoughts: Context is Key
While preseason performances offer valuable insights, it’s crucial to consider the context surrounding these statistics. The quality of competition, the complexity of the schemes, and the overall team dynamics all play a significant role in shaping a rookie’s performance. As the regular season approaches, it will be fascinating to see which of these rookie risers and fallers can translate their preseason success into meaningful contributions on the field.