Predicting the 2026 NFL Playoff Bracket: Early Projections and Dark Horse Teams

The 2025 NFL season is underway, and while Super Bowl LX is still months away, it’s never too early to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the 2026 playoff picture. The NFL landscape is ever-shifting, with coaching changes, free agency moves, and the emergence of young talent constantly reshaping team trajectories. As the saying goes, “On any given Sunday,” anything can happen, but let’s dive into some early projections and identify potential dark horse teams that could surprise us all.

The Contenders: Familiar Faces and Rising Powers

Several teams have established themselves as perennial contenders, and they’re likely to be in the mix come January 2026.

Philadelphia Eagles: Fresh off a dominant 40-22 Super Bowl LIX victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts, remain a force in the NFC. Despite losing key defensive linemen Josh Sweat and Milton Williams in the offseason, Howie Roseman has reloaded with promising rookies like linebacker Jihaad Campbell and safety Andrew Mukuba.
Buffalo Bills: With Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills are consistently among the AFC’s elite. Their balanced offense and aggressive defense make them a tough matchup for anyone. The Bills have won five straight division titles and are in pole position for a sixth.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson continues to play at an MVP level, and the Ravens boast a strong defense and continuity on offense. Baltimore has 10 offensive starters returning.
Kansas City Chiefs: Despite their Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, it’s hard to count out Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Chiefs’ explosive offense keeps them firmly in the championship conversation.

The NFC Landscape: A Crowded Field

The NFC appears to be wide open, with several teams vying for playoff spots.

Detroit Lions: The Lions have made significant strides in recent seasons and are looking to build on their success. With a strong offense led by Jared Goff and a developing defense, Detroit is a legitimate threat in the NFC North.
Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay’s Rams made a splash by acquiring Davante Adams to bolster their receiving corps. Adams, 32, will get $26 million guaranteed over his two-year contract.
Washington Commanders: The Commanders’ defense has been formidable, and with improvements on offense, they could surprise in a wide-open NFC. The Commanders traded for veteran offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to protect young quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers are an intriguing team with a mix of young talent and veteran leadership. The Packers traded for Micah Parsons, a move that could elevate their defense to the next level.

AFC Challengers: New Faces Emerge

In the AFC, several teams are looking to challenge the established powers.

Houston Texans: Despite trading away Laremy Tunsil, the Texans have a navigable path to the Super Bowl in a division that includes the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans.
Cincinnati Bengals: With a healthy Joe Burrow and a dynamic offense featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals are always a threat in the AFC North. Chase Brown has emerged as a top-tier every-down back.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos have been floating in mediocrity for years, but the tides could finally shift in 2026. The Broncos have invested in their trenches, signing OL Jonah Jackson and re-signing DT D.J. Jones.

Dark Horse Teams: Potential Super Bowl Sleepers

Now, let’s take a look at some potential dark horse teams that could surprise everyone and make a deep playoff run in 2026.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have a talented roster and a coach in Kevin O’Connell who can maximize their potential. The Vikings acquired veteran offensive linemen Aaron Jones and Ryan Kelly in free agency.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons feature one of the most exciting young nuclei in football, including Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Michael Penix Jr. Playing in the NFC South adds to the Falcons’ intrigue.
Los Angeles Chargers: With a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers could be a team on the rise. If the Chargers are ever going to win a Super Bowl, it will probably be with Harbaugh at the helm.

Coaching Changes and Their Impact

Several teams made significant coaching changes in the offseason, which could impact their performance in 2026.

Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson takes over as head coach, bringing with him a reputation for offensive innovation. The Bears also hired Dennis Allen as their defensive coordinator.
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer was promoted to head coach after serving as the team’s offensive coordinator.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen is the new head coach, tasked with revitalizing the Jaguars’ offense. The Jaguars also hired Anthony Campanile as their defensive coordinator and Grant Udinski as their offensive coordinator.
Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll brings his Super Bowl-winning experience to the Raiders. Carroll reunites with quarterback Geno Smith, whom he previously coached in Seattle.
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore takes over as head coach, hoping to bring his offensive expertise to the Saints. The Saints will hire Eagles quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier to be their offensive coordinator.
New York Jets: Aaron Glenn gets his first head coaching opportunity with the Jets.

Early 2026 NFL Mock Draft Highlights

Looking ahead to the 2026 NFL Draft, several players are generating buzz as potential top picks.

Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU): Nussmeier is considered the most pro-ready quarterback in the class.
T.J. Parker (DE, Clemson): Parker is a dynamic pass rusher with the potential to be a disruptive force in the NFL.
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah): Fano is a technician with a high floor.
Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): Downs is an exceptional processor whose versatility will be optimized by Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): Love is a well-built back who runs with good forward lean and leg drive.

Predicting the Playoff Bracket

While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, here’s an early stab at what the 2026 NFL playoff bracket could look like:

AFC

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Houston Texans
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Denver Broncos
7. Los Angeles Chargers

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Detroit Lions
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Atlanta Falcons

Conclusion

The 2026 NFL season promises to be full of surprises, with established powers facing challenges from rising contenders and potential dark horse teams. While the Eagles, Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs remain the favorites, keep an eye on teams like the Lions, Commanders, and Bengals, who could make a deep playoff run. As the season unfolds, injuries, unexpected performances, and coaching decisions will undoubtedly reshape the landscape, making the road to Super Bowl LX one of the most exciting in recent memory.