NFL Week 1 Upset Alert: Three Underdog Teams Ready to Shock the League!

The NFL season is finally upon us, and after a long offseason of speculation, training camps, and preseason games, the real action is about to begin. Week 1 is always a wild card, with teams still finding their rhythm and potential surprises lurking around every corner. While the favorites are often the safest bet, the NFL is known for its parity, and every year, several underdogs emerge victorious in the opening week. In 2024, we saw the New England Patriots, as 8-point underdogs, stun the Cincinnati Bengals, proving that anything can happen.

Here are three underdog teams that have the potential to shock the league in Week 1 of the 2025 season:

1. New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

The Setup: The New York Giants, with a revamped offense led by quarterback Drew Lock, travel to face the Washington Commanders, who are favored by 6 points at home. The Commanders are looking to start strong with their new quarterback, Jayden Daniels, and prove they are contenders in the NFC East.

Why the Giants Could Upset: While the Commanders have the higher expectations, the Giants have quietly assembled a roster capable of surprising some teams. Drew Lock, acquired in the offseason, has shown flashes of brilliance in the preseason, and the Giants’ receiving corps, featuring rookie Malik Nabers, could pose problems for the Commanders’ secondary.

Key Factors:

Drew Lock’s Performance: Lock’s ability to manage the game and make timely throws will be crucial. If he can avoid turnovers and capitalize on opportunities, the Giants’ offense can be surprisingly effective.
Commanders’ Offensive Line: The Commanders’ offensive line needs to protect Jayden Daniels. If the Giants’ defensive front, led by Dexter Lawrence, can pressure Daniels, it could disrupt the Commanders’ offensive flow.
Special Teams: In what is expected to be a close game, special teams play could be the deciding factor. A missed field goal or a costly penalty could swing the momentum in either direction.

The Verdict: The Giants have the potential to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset. The SportsLine model suggests paying attention to Russell Wilson’s success as an underdog, which could favor the Giants covering the spread.

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

The Setup: The Cincinnati Bengals, perennial contenders in the AFC, travel to Cleveland to face the Browns, who are favored by 5.5 points. The Browns’ defense is expected to be among the league’s best, while the Bengals are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2024 season.

Why the Bengals Could Upset: Despite the Browns being favored, the Bengals have a proven track record of success with Joe Burrow under center. Burrow led the league in both passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43) two seasons ago. The Bengals’ offense, when healthy, is capable of scoring on anyone.

Key Factors:

Joe Burrow’s Health: Burrow’s health is paramount. If he is fully recovered from his injury, the Bengals’ offense can be explosive.
Browns’ Quarterback Situation: The Browns’ quarterback situation is uncertain. If Joe Flacco struggles, the Bengals’ defense could capitalize.
Turnover Battle: The team that wins the turnover battle will likely win the game. Both teams have playmakers on both sides of the ball, so protecting the football will be essential.

The Verdict: The Bengals have the experience and talent to beat the Browns, even on the road. According to CBS Sports, the SportsLine model projects a victory for Cincinnati, with the Bengals covering the spread over 50% of the time.

3. Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

The Setup: The Detroit Lions, coming off a promising season, travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers, who are favored by 2.5 points. The Packers are looking to continue their development with Jordan Love at quarterback, while the Lions aim to prove they are legitimate contenders in the NFC North.

Why the Lions Could Upset: The Lions have a high-powered offense led by quarterback Jared Goff and a strong running game. Their offense should be able to put up points against the Packers’ defense.

Key Factors:

Lions’ Offensive Line: The Lions’ offensive line needs to protect Jared Goff and create running lanes for the running backs. If they can control the line of scrimmage, the Lions’ offense will be difficult to stop.
Jordan Love’s Development: Love’s progress is critical for the Packers. If he can make good decisions and avoid turnovers, the Packers’ offense can be efficient.
Defensive Performance: Both defenses need to step up. The team that can generate pressure and force turnovers will have a significant advantage.

The Verdict: The Lions have the potential to surprise the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Lions, with a chip on their shoulder, are determined to prove they are not a one-year wonder.

Injury Updates to Consider

Before making any final decisions, it’s essential to monitor the latest injury reports. Several key players are dealing with injuries heading into Week 1, which could impact the outcomes of these games.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings): Jefferson is on track to play in Week 1 after recovering from a hamstring strain.
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins): Hill is expected to play in the Dolphins’ season opener despite missing practice time with an oblique injury.
De’Von Achane (Dolphins): Achane is also expected to play after recovering from a calf injury.
Jayden Reed (Packers): Reed has been dealing with a foot fracture but is expected to play against the Lions.

Conclusion

Week 1 is always unpredictable, and these three underdog teams have the potential to shock the league. While the favorites are often the safer bet, the NFL is known for its parity, and every year, several underdogs emerge victorious in the opening week. Keep an eye on these games and be prepared for some surprises!