Decoding NFL Tiebreakers: Who Has the Edge in the 2025 Playoff Race?

Decoding NFL Tiebreakers: Who Has the Edge in the 2025 Playoff Race?

The 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with several teams vying for playoff spots. As the season progresses, the dreaded “T” word – Tiebreakers – starts to loom large. In a league as competitive as the NFL, understanding these tiebreaker rules is crucial to predicting which teams will ultimately make the playoffs. Remember the 2002 season when the New York Jets clinched the AFC East after four tiebreaker steps? Or when the Pittsburgh Steelers missed the 2009 playoffs despite a 9-7 record due to tiebreakers? These scenarios highlight the importance of every single game.

The Basics: Division vs. Wild Card

The NFL has different tiebreaking procedures for teams within the same division and teams competing for a Wild Card spot. It’s important to note that tie games count as half a win and half a loss when calculating win percentages. Let’s break down the scenarios:

Division Tiebreakers: The Road to the Top Four

When two or more teams in a division are tied at the end of the regular season, the following tiebreakers are applied, in order:

  1. Head-to-head record: This is the first and often most decisive factor. If the Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins are battling for the AFC East crown, their head-to-head record against each other will be the first tiebreaker applied.
  2. Best win percentage in games played within the division: If the head-to-head record doesn’t break the tie, the team with the better record against other divisional opponents gets the nod. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos have the same overall record and are 1-1 against each other, the team with the better record against the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers wins the tiebreaker.
  3. Best win percentage in common games: This considers the record against opponents that both teams have played. A minimum of four common games is required.
  4. Best win percentage in games played within the conference: A team’s record against all AFC or NFC opponents.
  5. Strength of victory: The combined record of all the teams a team has defeated.
  6. Strength of schedule: The combined record of all the teams a team has played.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed: Add a team’s ranking in points scored and points allowed; the lowest score wins.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed: Same as above, but considering all 32 teams in the NFL.
  9. Best net points in common games: The difference between points scored and points allowed in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games: The difference between total points scored and points allowed.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games: The difference between total touchdowns scored and touchdowns allowed.
  12. Coin toss: Yes, it can come down to a literal flip of a coin!

Three or More Teams Tied:

The process becomes more complex when three or more teams are tied. The goal is to eliminate teams one by one until only one remains. Once a team is eliminated, the tiebreaker reverts to the beginning for the remaining teams.

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs): If one team has defeated all the others, or lost to all the others, this tiebreaker applies.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Wild Card Tiebreakers: The Fight for the Final Spots

The Wild Card race is often even more chaotic than the division battles. Here’s how the NFL breaks ties for Wild Card spots:

Two Teams (From Different Divisions):

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable: If the two teams played each other during the regular season, the winner gets the advantage.
  2. Best win percentage in games played within the conference: This is often the most critical tiebreaker.
  3. Best win percentage in common games (minimum of four games): Similar to the division tiebreaker.
  4. Strength of victory: The combined record of all the teams a team has defeated.
  5. Strength of schedule: The combined record of all the teams a team has played.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Multiple Teams:

The NFL uses a similar process as the division tiebreaker, aiming to eliminate teams one at a time until the Wild Card spots are filled.

Who Has the Edge in 2025?

As of Week 3 of the 2025 season, several teams are looking strong. In the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, and Buffalo Bills are all sitting at 3-0 [NFL Playoff Picture]. However, it’s still too early to make definitive predictions. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, both at 1-2, are teams that many expect to rebound [2025 NFL Season].

In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are undefeated [NFL Playoff Picture]. Keep an eye on teams like the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions, all at 2-1, as potential playoff contenders [2025 NFL Season].

Strength of Schedule: A Hidden Advantage

Strength of schedule (SoS) and Strength of Victory (SoV) are tiebreakers that gain importance as the season progresses. A team with a difficult schedule that manages to win games might have an advantage over a team with an easy schedule and a similar record.

Key Games to Watch

Pay close attention to divisional matchups and games between teams vying for Wild Card spots. These games not only impact the win-loss record but also directly influence the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Impact of Rule Changes

Any rule changes implemented by the NFL can potentially impact tiebreaker scenarios. For example, changes to overtime rules or the kickoff could affect scoring and, consequently, net points, which is a tiebreaker.

Conclusion: It’s a Long Season

While it’s tempting to analyze tiebreaker scenarios early in the season, it’s important to remember that the NFL is unpredictable. Injuries, unexpected wins and losses, and even a little bit of luck can all play a role in determining which teams make the playoffs.