Is Mahomes Slipping? Analyzing the Chiefs QB’s Performance Dip in 2025
Patrick Mahomes, the name synonymous with breathtaking plays and Super Bowl victories, has faced a level of scrutiny in the 2025 season that’s unfamiliar to Chiefs Kingdom. After a Super Bowl LIX loss to the Philadelphia Eagles where the Chiefs fell 40-22, questions are being asked: Is the magic fading? Is Mahomes, at age 29, beginning to decline? While it’s premature to write off a player of his caliber, a data-driven look at his 2024 performance reveals some concerning trends.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Completely)
Mahomes’ 2024 season saw him log just 3,928 passing yards, his lowest as a full-time starter. He threw for 26 touchdowns, along with 11 interceptions, and posted a 93.5 passer rating. While these numbers are still respectable, they fall short of the astronomical standards he set in his earlier years, where he routinely surpassed 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. According to Fantasy Points, after posting overall QB1 numbers in 2022, Mahomes barely qualified as a QB1 in 2025. He posted his fewest passing yards (3,928) and touchdowns (26) since becoming a starter.
Fantasy football analysts have taken note. “One down season is a coincidence, but Patrick Mahomes has now had two rather disappointing campaigns,” notes one Fantasy Points analyst. “Granted, he set the bar incredibly high, but we’re starting to wonder if this is who Mahomes is now.”
Defenses Catching Up?
One potential explanation for the dip is that NFL defenses have finally begun to figure out how to contain Mahomes. During his ascent, Mahomes terrorized defenses with his ability to make improbable throws from any angle. However, in 2024, his yards per attempt reached a career minimum of 6.8, suggesting that defenses are successfully neutralizing his deep threats. According to The SportsRush, from 2018 to 2022, Mahomes averaged 4.3 deep pass attempts per game. But in 2023 and 2024, that figure dropped to just three per game. He threw only four touchdowns on deep passes while turning the ball over eight times.
Defensive coordinators are also blitzing Mahomes more aggressively, leading to increased turnovers. He threw eight interceptions in the first seven weeks of the 2024 season, a troubling sign for a quarterback known for his impeccable decision-making.
The Offensive Line Conundrum
Mahomes’ struggles in 2024 can’t be solely attributed to his own performance. The Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line, once a strength, has become a significant area of concern. In Super Bowl LIX, Mahomes was sacked six times, a career-high, and was under constant pressure throughout the game. According to Sports Illustrated, “Patrick Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times (including a single-game most six times in the Super Bowl) last season.”
The Chiefs have attempted to address these issues by drafting Ohio State standout left tackle Josh Simmons in the first round and signing San Francisco 49ers swing tackle Jaylon Moore. However, it remains to be seen whether these additions will be enough to restore the offensive line to its former glory. There’s even talk that Moore could challenge veteran Jawaan Taylor for the starting right tackle job, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the line’s composition.
The Kelce Factor and Receiving Woes
Another factor contributing to Mahomes’ performance dip is the decline of Travis Kelce. While still a valuable target, the 35-year-old tight end is no longer the dominant force he once was. His receptions, yards, touchdowns, and yards after catch have all been on a three-year decline. According to Fantasy Points, nearly all of his metrics are on a three or four-year decline, including yards per catch, yards after catch, missed tackles forced, and yards per route run. He simply can’t make plays downfield like he used to, and he only caught three touchdowns despite having a position-best 26 red-zone targets.
The Chiefs’ wide receiver corps has also been plagued by inconsistency and injuries. Rashee Rice got off to a fast start before tearing his LCL in Week 4. Xavier Worthy, the team’s first-round pick in 2024, showed flashes of potential but struggled to develop a consistent connection with Mahomes on deep routes. The Chiefs also signed Marquise Brown, who missed most of the 2024 campaign.
Is It Time to Panic?
Despite the concerning trends, it’s too early to declare that Mahomes is in decline. He’s still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has a proven track record of overcoming adversity. The Chiefs have also made significant investments in improving the offensive line and adding new weapons to the offense.
According to CBS Sports analyst Jimmie Kaylor, “With Patrick Mahomes in the mix, this seems like a no-brainer. However, this is actually a rare accomplishment in today’s NFL. In 2024, Kansas City had a touchdown pass in 14 out of 17 regular season game — 16 of those were started by Mahomes. With the way last season ended for Kansas City, I expect Mahomes to have added motivation in 2025.”
Ultimately, Mahomes’ performance in 2025 will depend on several factors, including the health and effectiveness of his supporting cast, the ability of the offensive line to protect him, and his own ability to adapt to evolving defensive strategies. While there are legitimate concerns about his recent play, it would be foolish to write off a player of his caliber. The 2025 season will be a crucial test for Mahomes, as he looks to prove that he’s still the best quarterback in the NFL and that the Chiefs’ dynasty is far from over.