Will Your Team Be Back? Analyzing Each NFL Playoff Team’s Chances of Returning in 2025
The Super Bowl LX confetti has settled, and the Buffalo Bills are hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after a thrilling 31-28 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. But as the echoes of the season fade, a crucial question looms for fans of the teams that tasted playoff action: Will your team be back in the hunt next year? Let’s dive into an analysis of each 2024 NFL playoff team’s chances of returning to the postseason in 2025.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
Verdict: Highly Likely
The Buffalo Bills are still the class of the AFC East heading into the season, and they have the NFL’s shortest odds (-650) to reach the playoffs. The Bills own the second-longest active postseason streak with six straight playoff appearances. Even after losing key players like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, the Bills, led by Josh Allen and a revamped defense, are poised to continue their dominance. The AFC East is one of two divisions with three teams listed at +170 or shorter to make the playoffs, so the Bills will have to earn their spot.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
Verdict: Likely
With two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson leading the way, the Baltimore Ravens will return as top contenders. Their defense may even take a step forward as defensive coordinator Zach Orr heads into his second season as the play caller. The Ravens sit at -450 odds to reach the postseason for the seventh time in eight years with Lamar Jackson. The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to return to the playoffs at -160 after missing the last two seasons at -250 odds or shorter.
AFC South: Houston Texans
Verdict: Moderate
The Houston Texans own -135 odds to make the playoffs for a third straight season, which would set the franchise’s longest streak for playoff appearances. After a surprising 2024 season, the Texans, spearheaded by C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans, have a solid foundation. However, the AFC South is improving, and maintaining their playoff spot will require continued growth and smart offseason moves.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
Verdict: Highly Likely
As long as they have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach and Steve Spagnuolo running the defense, they are as close to a lock for the playoffs as any team in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs fell short of their aspirations to become the first team to threepeat as Super Bowl winners, but now that they’re not reigning champions, they’re no longer at the center of the spotlight.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
Verdict: Likely
Philadelphia allowed -0.09 EPA per play on pass plays, the top mark in the NFL. With a dominant offensive line and a dangerous run game, there’s little reason to believe the Eagles won’t return to the playoffs in 2025. The Philadelphia Eagles own the NFC’s shortest odds (-400) to reach the postseason, and they’ll try to extend the NFC’s second-longest playoff streak to five seasons.
NFC North: Detroit Lions
Verdict: Likely
The Detroit Lions are still the class of the quartet after securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed a year ago, and they figure to remain one of the NFL’s top offenses. The NFC North was a powerhouse division in 2024, and it’s shaping up to be even more formidable this time around.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Verdict: Moderate
Even after losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen, we don’t expect the Bucs to fall back in 2025. After adding yet another first-round weapon in Emeka Egbuka, the Buccaneers could return in the most potent form we’ve seen from this core yet. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face uncertainty at quarterback — between rookie Tyler Shough and veterans Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, following Derek Carr’s retirement.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
Verdict: Moderate
On the offensive side, Los Angeles faces several key concerns. Even if Matthew Stafford returns at age 37, his 74.7 PFF overall grade ranked just 21st in the NFL this past season. Additionally, the Rams could lose left tackle Alaric Jackson in free agency, and there is a realistic chance that Cooper Kupp has played his last down for the franchise. These challenges, combined with the fact that they share a division with a San Francisco 49ers team that could be even stronger if healthier, make the Rams’ path back to the playoffs in 2025 an uphill battle.
Wild Card Teams: AFC
Los Angeles Chargers: Moderate
The Chargers have a clear path to improvement in 2025—if they can shore up the interior offensive line and add weapons for Justin Herbert. Retaining edge rusher Khalil Mack should also be a priority, as the soon-to-be 34-year-old is expected to hit free agency despite earning a 90.2 PFF overall grade that ranked fifth among edge defenders. Even with these potential upgrades, Los Angeles faces a difficult road ahead in Jim Harbaugh’s second season. Competing in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, which includes the Kansas City Chiefs, will make a playoff return anything but easy.
Miami Dolphins: Unlikely
The current NFL playoff odds suggest two of the seven teams who made the postseason last year will miss this season. The Cleveland Browns, who made the playoffs last year, have been eliminated for a while, but the Dolphins are still alive. However, the odds suggest the Broncos will get the final spot over them.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Unlikely
The Cincinnati Bengals are poised to put up a good fight, so long as Joe Burrow is upright and slinging it as usual. There’s also the Pittsburgh Steelers, who could be a touch scrappier if a certain someone ends up under center.
Wild Card Teams: NFC
Washington Commanders: Moderate
Through Week 7, the Commanders are forecasted to be atop the NFC East. At that point, they will reach what could be a major turning point for their season: a Monday Night Football game in Kansas City in Week 8, followed by back-to-back home contests against the Seahawks and Lions. Washington can secure its best chance of outlasting the Eagles in the division by winning at least two of those three games. In other words, the Commanders can really set themselves up well ahead of their Week 11 game against Miami in Madrid, Spain.
Green Bay Packers: Likely
The NFC North was a powerhouse division in 2024, and it’s shaping up to be even more formidable this time around. The Detroit Lions are still the class of the quartet after securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed a year ago, and they figure to remain one of the NFL’s top offenses. The rival Minnesota Vikings also have an enviable setup for their young quarterback, and the Chicago Bears should be better after surrounding Caleb Williams with more help. All that said, the Packers might be most likely to finish No. 2, yet still boast one of the league’s top records.
Dallas Cowboys: Unlikely
The Cowboys are +210 (32.3%) to return to the postseason after missing for the first time since 2020. The Cowboys are -115 to miss versus -105 to make the playoffs.
The NFL landscape is ever-changing, and predicting playoff teams a year in advance is a fool’s errand. However, by analyzing team strengths, weaknesses, and offseason moves, we can get a sense of which teams are best positioned to make a run in 2025.